In brief
- Bitcoin's price recently fell short of topping its 200-day moving average, the average closing price over the period.
- The move mirrors its activity during 2022, which preceded a significant drop in the price.
- Nevertheless, BTC is still well above a key support level around $70,000 as it trades below $80,000 on Wednesday.
Bitcoin was unable to surpass its 200-day moving average price around $82,430, according to a report from analytics firm CryptoQuant, cutting short its so-called bear market rally and leaving it at a critical point ahead of its next move.
The rejection, though still 37% above its April lows, mirrors Bitcoin’s March 2022 relief rally that was followed by a significant downturn, which saw Bitcoin fall from as high as $47,000 to less than $16,000 later that year.
In addition to the rejection of its average closing price over the last 200 days, unrealized profits levels are also high, potentially adding to sell pressure.
“Traders' unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest reading since June 2025, signaling elevated selling pressure risk as holders sitting on large unrealized gains become increasingly incentivized to distribute,” the report reads.
“These margin levels mirror those seen in March 2022, precisely when Bitcoin last tested the 200-day MA before resuming its decline,” it notes.
Not only are profit levels high, but profit-taking has already begun, according to the on-chain analytics firm. It explained that last week, traders locked in the largest profit-taking day—14.6K Bitcoin, or $1.16 billion worth as of this writing—since December 2025.
“Historically, this anticipates lower prices as traders start to sell,” the firm wrote.
Furthermore, the Coinbase Premium, or the difference in the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase versus Binance, has flipped negative since the end of April. The indicator, which is typically used to evaluate the demand for BTC in the United States, currently showcases declining demand for spot BTC buyers.
BTC has fallen around 1.6% in the last 24 hours and 2.5% in the last week of trading, recently changing hands at $79,379—about 3.5% below the 200-day moving average highlighted by CryptoQuant.
And while the rejection may lead to a further downtrend, the firm did indicate that Bitcoin has a major support level around $70,000, suggesting that the marker represents a key level where selling may become exhausted.
“Bitcoin may find support around $70K, the traders’ on-chain realized price, if the price correction continues,” the report says. “This level has historically acted as a key resistance-turned-support band during bear markets, as it represents the average cost basis of short-term traders and the level at which unrealized profit margins compress back toward zero, reducing the incentive for further selling,” it added.