Nasdaq Wants a Piece of the Prediction Market Biz Too

Nasdaq Inc., the parent company of the second-largest stock exchange by market capitalization, wants to roll out its own prediction market offering.

The company intends to offer options contracts for yes-or-no bets, which would be priced between 1 cent and $1, according to an SEC filing submitted early Monday morning.

Nasdaq's so-called Outcome Related Options would let traders take binary positions on whether a specified event happens. Binary options are a simplified version of more traditional option contracts that payout depending on the outcome of a yes-or-no proposition.

If the requested rule change is approved, this will be Nasdaq’s first foray into the prediction market space—albeit under the regulation of the SEC rather than the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. The company's would-be competitors, like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, are all regulated by the CFTC through Designated Contract Markets licenses.

Prediction markets are effectively a form of derivative contracts that allow traders to wager on the outcome of virtually anything—from stock and crypto prices to sports, cultural, and political events. The industry has exploded over the last year, generating billions in trading volume on a weekly basis.

There's been ongoing discourse, though, about which federal regulator, the SEC or CFTC, has jurisdiction over prediction market platforms. In February, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said "see you in court" in response to state attorneys general and gaming commissions who have argued that prediction markets encroach on their regulatory frameworks.

But there's also been some mention of the SEC having a role in overseeing prediction markets. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has suggested that some prediction markets could fall under the agency's jurisdiction.

"Prediction markets are exactly one thing where there’s overlapping jurisdiction potentially,” Atkins said at the time, in response to a question from Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA). “That is a huge issue we’re focused on.”

Other Wall Street giants have already gotten on the field.

In October 2025, New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange invested up to $2 billion in Polymarket, bringing the company's valuation to a whopping $9 billion. Although a press release said the investment would be worth "up to $2 billion," a Polymarket spokesperson told Decrypt that it was accurate to call it a $2 billion investment.

Derivatives exchange CME Group has teamed up with FanDuel for a prediction market offering. And Cboe, its competitor derivatives exchange operator, has taken a strategy similar to Nasdaq. Last month, the company began talks with brokers to offer yes-or-no contracts, unnamed sources told The Wall Street Journal.