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Bitcoin Live Pricebtc · USD · Spot

$62,518

$736.26 (-1.16%)24h

24h High$63,433

24h Low$61,849

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NEXT BTC All-time highNot in 2026

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End of today

$62,000 to $64,000

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News and sentiment

Sentiment Balance

0 bullish0 neutral6 bearish

July Rate-Hike Odds Jump to 39%, CPI Data Looms as Key Test

Bearish

July hike odds surge to 39% from under 10% in a month
CME FedWatch now prices a 39% chance of a July rate hike, up from less than 10% a month ago, with the fed-funds rate already at 3.50–3.75%. Rapidly repriced tightening expectations compress valuations for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Core CPI seen sticky at 2.8% YoY even as headline dips
FactSet forecasts June headline CPI falling 0.17% month-over-month — its largest drop since April 2020 — but core CPI is seen up 0.25% MoM and 2.8% YoY. JP Morgan's Kasman warns core near 3% and elevated services inflation remain 'well above the Fed's target,' keeping rate-hike risk alive.
Bank of America calls for three rate hikes this year
BofA economists project three rate increases in 2026, a more hawkish baseline than market consensus. With the Fed now focused on sticky inflation over jobs after recent hiring strength, Tuesday's CPI print carries outsized policy weight and directional risk for Bitcoin.

Hormuz Blockade and 20% Cargo Toll Deepen Energy Shock, Bearish for BTC

Bearish

Trump's Hormuz blockade and 20% cargo toll set to begin Tuesday 4 p.m. ET
The U.S. blockade targets vessels transiting to or from Iranian ports starting Tuesday, while Trump demands 20% on all other cargo. Strait traffic was already down 52% week-over-week before the announcement, per MarineTraffic, signaling a structural supply disruption that keeps oil — and inflation — elevated.
Brent posts largest single-day jump since May 2020 as crude hits multi-month highs
Brent closed at $83.30/barrel Monday, a 9.6% single-day surge, while WTI settled at $78.14 — both at their highest since June 15. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan projects U.S. gasoline to hit $4/gallon within 7-10 days, compounding the inflation narrative that weighs on risk assets including Bitcoin.
Iran strikes U.S. bases in four countries as Hormuz standoff widens geopolitically
Iran hit U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman on Sunday July 12, while the U.S. launched a fourth wave of airstrikes. The widening theater raises tail-risk fears beyond oil, sustaining the risk-off environment that pressures speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Waller's Rate-Hike Warning Adds Fresh Hawkish Headwind for Bitcoin

Bearish

Waller signals rate hikes possible if core inflation stays broad
Fed Governor Waller stated monetary policy 'must remain independent' and warned rates may need to rise if core PCE keeps showing broad price pressures. With May CPI at 4.2% — the highest since April 2023 — the remarks materially raise the odds of tighter policy, a direct headwind for Bitcoin.
Core inflation forecast accelerating toward 5.2%, doubling Fed target
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg project the 12-month core gauge to accelerate to 5.2% from 4.9%, more than double the Fed's 2% target. Persistent overshoot gives Waller and fellow hawks concrete data cover to push for hikes, tightening financial conditions that weigh on risk assets.
Wave of Fed speakers this week could amplify hawkish tone
NY Fed's Williams, Governor Cook, Vice-Chair Jefferson, and two regional presidents are all scheduled to speak mid-week. Fed Chair Warsh's historically hawkish record reinforces the direction; a coordinated message could sharpen rate-hike expectations and pressure Bitcoin further.

Russia's Refining Collapse Deepens Energy Shock, Adding Macro Headwind for Bitcoin

Bearish

Russian refining hits 21-year low, 1.6M bpd below year-earlier levels
EA Analytics puts Russian refinery throughput at 3.91M bpd in June — the lowest since March 2005 and 1.6M bpd below year-earlier levels per the IEA. With 24 of 34 major refineries hit, supply damage is structural, not temporary, reinforcing the persistent energy-price shock pressuring risk assets.
Global diesel prices hit multi-year highs as Russian fuel exports dry up
Russia banned most diesel exports through end of July after Ukraine struck roughly 50 Russian oil facilities in 100 days. The IEA cut its Russian supply outlook by 85,000 bpd this year and 150,000 bpd next, compounding the oil inflation narrative already flagged as a Bitcoin headwind.
Domestic fuel crisis signals deeper capacity loss than official data shows
Russia classified refinery statistics in April 2023, masking true damage. License-plate fuel rationing, gas-station queues from Kaliningrad to the Pacific, and over 17,000 Yandex searches for 'how to make gasoline' suggest the supply hit is wider than IEA figures capture.

China's tougher crypto laundering push adds mild regulatory headwind for Bitcoin

Bearish

Prosecutors propose presuming criminal intent for mixer and privacy-coin use
A Procuratorate Daily article co-authored by Hunan district prosecutors urges courts to presume laundering intent when suspects use coin mixers, privacy coins, or anonymous wallets — reversing the burden of proof. If adopted, the policy would directly chill on-chain privacy tools and reduce liquidity from Chinese-linked participants.
China's crypto laundering scale is large: $16B processed by Chinese-language networks in 2025
Chainalysis estimates Chinese-language networks handled $16 billion in crypto laundering in 2025, roughly one-fifth of all global crypto laundering. Heightened prosecution of that volume, if enforcement follows the proposed framework, would remove a meaningful source of crypto demand and transaction flow.
State platform to sell seized crypto could add supply overhang
The article calls for a national custody-and-disposal platform to auction seized tokens through compliant channels. Local governments already quietly sell confiscated crypto offshore; formalizing this would create a structured, recurring state-run supply channel — a net bearish pressure on Bitcoin prices.

Rising Bond Yields and Inflation Fears Add Macro Headwind for Bitcoin

Bearish

Oil's inflation pass-through lifts bond yields, tightening conditions
Wealth Club strategist Susannah Streeter warned that creeping oil prices 'will ignite fresh inflationary worries' about how far interest rates could move, with gilts and US Treasury yields already rising in response. Higher rates compress valuations of speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Nasdaq and chip stocks slide as dual pressures mount Monday
The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 fell at Monday's open as chipmakers cratered — SK Hynix lost 15% on the day and has shed nearly 40% since last month's record. Briefing.com's Patrick O'Hare called it 'not a comfortable situation,' noting both the Iran conflict and semiconductor selloff were on a simultaneous downswing.
June CPI data due Tuesday raises rate-path stakes
With Brent crude up as much as 5% intraday before paring to 3.3% gains, Tuesday's June CPI print arrives at a sensitive moment. A hotter-than-expected reading could validate the inflation-from-oil narrative and increase pressure on the Fed, adding another headwind for Bitcoin alongside the existing risk-off environment.

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BTC price on July 14, 4PM UTC

When will BTC reach a new All-Time High?

News and sentiment

July Rate-Hike Odds Jump to 39%, CPI Data Looms as Key Test

July hike odds surge to 39% from under 10% in a month

Core CPI seen sticky at 2.8% YoY even as headline dips

Bank of America calls for three rate hikes this year

Hormuz Blockade and 20% Cargo Toll Deepen Energy Shock, Bearish for BTC

Trump's Hormuz blockade and 20% cargo toll set to begin Tuesday 4 p.m. ET

Brent posts largest single-day jump since May 2020 as crude hits multi-month highs

Iran strikes U.S. bases in four countries as Hormuz standoff widens geopolitically

Waller's Rate-Hike Warning Adds Fresh Hawkish Headwind for Bitcoin

Waller signals rate hikes possible if core inflation stays broad

Core inflation forecast accelerating toward 5.2%, doubling Fed target

Wave of Fed speakers this week could amplify hawkish tone

Russia's Refining Collapse Deepens Energy Shock, Adding Macro Headwind for Bitcoin

Russian refining hits 21-year low, 1.6M bpd below year-earlier levels

Global diesel prices hit multi-year highs as Russian fuel exports dry up

Domestic fuel crisis signals deeper capacity loss than official data shows

China's tougher crypto laundering push adds mild regulatory headwind for Bitcoin

Prosecutors propose presuming criminal intent for mixer and privacy-coin use

China's crypto laundering scale is large: $16B processed by Chinese-language networks in 2025

State platform to sell seized crypto could add supply overhang

Rising Bond Yields and Inflation Fears Add Macro Headwind for Bitcoin

Oil's inflation pass-through lifts bond yields, tightening conditions

Nasdaq and chip stocks slide as dual pressures mount Monday

June CPI data due Tuesday raises rate-path stakes

Más Noticias

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