In brief
- Last week’s drop in Bitcoin’s price coincides with crypto ETF outflows spiking to $177 million.
- Bitcoin is up 7% since February 28, when the war began, outperforming the S&P 500 (-4.6%) and gold (-17%).
- Experts eye $80,000 as "key inflection point" for altcoin rotation; Trump announces potential Iran ceasefire.
Bitcoin’s drop from its peak above $75,000 last week has solidified its month-long sideways price action. While the leading cryptocurrency remains sensitive to immediate geopolitical headlines, broader market sentiment was tempered by last week’s $177 million outflows from exchange-traded funds across the crypto sector.
The weekly pullback, which saw Bitcoin dip to a low of $68,500, according to CoinGecko data, highlights the choppy nature of the current market. Over a broader time horizon, however, the asset’s resilience remains a focal point. The top crypto has significantly outperformed gold and the S&P 500 index since the onset of the U.S.-Iran war on February 28.
That divergence is due to Bitcoin’s “several rounds of deleveraging” since its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080, experts previously told Decrypt.
Bitcoin holding well despite geopolitical escalations is encouraging, Richard Usher, director of trading at financial infrastructure provider OpenPayd, told Decrypt, anticipating a bullish second quarter. “The risk is clearly a prolonged conflict which could negatively affect sentiment in all risk assets, but my base case remains that neither side wants, or frankly can tolerate, a drawn-out conflict, so I remain cautiously upbeat for Q2," he said.
Ignacio Aguirre Franco, CMO of cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, echoed Usher’s outlook. “If macro conditions stabilize, even without a bullish catalyst, that could be enough to push the market into a recovery phase in Q2,” the Bitget analyst told Decrypt.
Though altcoins are at the behest of Bitcoin’s price action and volatility, a recovery in its price beyond $80,000 could be a “key inflection point” that triggers a capital rotation into Ethereum, XRP, and the broader crypto market, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, told Decrypt.
Adding a geopolitical twist to the start of this week, Bitcoin spiked to an intraday high above $71,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced “productive” conversations with Iran and a five-day pause on planned strikes targeting the country's energy infrastructure.
Leading cryptocurrencies including Ethereum and XRP jumped alongside Bitcoin, though all three remain down on the week.
The news catalyzed bullish sentiment, with users’ chances of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 before $55,000 jumping by 9% on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan. Myriad users also assign a 20.7% chance to a U.S.-Iran cease-fire, up from 12.8% earlier today.