Morning Minute: Robinhood Pushes Deeper Into Prediction Markets

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors mixed with BTC leading at $87,400
• Coinbase rolled out several new products including prediction markets, stocks, equity perps, DEX and more
• DTCC to issue tokenized securites on Canton Network
• Citadel and other banks plan to spend $100M to counter crypto spend in 2026 elections
• Uniswap submits final proposal to turn fee switch on, burn 100M UNI

🎯 Robinhood Pushes Deeper Into Prediction Markets

Robinhood isn’t treating prediction markets like an experiment anymore.

They’re leaning all the way in.

📌 What Happened

Robinhood announced an expansion of its prediction markets offering, adding new NFL player-performance contracts alongside traditional game outcomes.

Users can now trade on events like touchdowns and yardage totals, beyond just winners and spreads.

The company also introduced “preset combo” contracts, which bundle multiple outcomes from a single game into one trade that only pays out if all conditions are met - effectively a parlay-style product.

Robinhood said custom-built combos, where users create their own bundled outcomes, are planned for rollout in 2026.

The firm also framed prediction markets as a standalone product line, pointing to a growing hub with thousands of live contracts across sports, politics, economics, and cultural events.

And they noted that it’s their fastest-growing revenue line.

🗣️ What They’re Saying

“Robinhood is ushering in a new era in which AI and prediction markets will come together to change the future of finance and news.”

“I believe we’re at the very beginning of a prediction market supercycle and as it progresses, we should expect to see adoption and volumes continuing to grow, potentially into the trillions of contracts traded each year.” - Vlad Tenev, Robinhood CEO

“Robinhood and Coinbase going hard on Prediction Markets and every major company looking to adopt one or build a strategy around them.” - Farokh Sarmad, President and Co-Founder of Myriad

🧠 Why It Matters

Prediction markets are clearly booming.

What’s missing is deep liquidity, distribution, and scale.

Power players like Robinhood leaning in can help solve those issues.

A lot of innovative use cases of prediction markets (i.e. insurance, hedging against bad weather, etc.) are great in theory but not operationally possible right now due to limited market size.

Once these markets are more mature, with more players and deeper liquidity, these kinds of use cases can be unlocked.

So everyone who is pro-prediction market should be cheering this on.

Robinhood shareholders should be cheering this on as well, as the stock popped 3% on the news of their prediction market direction (on a red day) and has jumped 20% since their original announcement.

Robinhood is clearly betting on a prediction market supercycle—let’s see if they can help manifest it into reality…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors were mixed; BTC+0.3% at $87,400; ETH -2% at $2,870; BNB -2% at $838, SOL -3% at $124
• BEAT (+26%), Pippin (+9%) and CC (+4%) led top movers
• Coinbase announced several new products last night, including prediction markets, stock trading, equity perps, AI advisors, borrowing, full DEX integration and more
• Senators proposed the SAFE Crypto Act, creating a federal task force to coordinate agencies on crypto scam enforcement and investor protection
• The DTCC said it will issue tokenized securities on Canton Network, starting with tokenized U.S. Treasuries
• Ex-Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison left federal prison after 11 months, moving to another government facility or home confinement to serve the rest of her 2-year sentence
• The acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham left to join MoonPay as its chief legal and administrative office
• Citadel and other big banks are planning to spend $100M in the 2026 midterms, potentially opposing pro-crypto spending
• Circle announced its Arc Builders Fund, meant to support early-stage teams building apps and services on Arc

In Corporate Treasuries / ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $457M in net inflows on Wednesday, the most in over a month
• Hut 8 shares jumped after the miner announced a $7B AI/data-center deal involving Google financing

In Memes / Onchain Movers

• Memecoin leaders are mostly red; DOGE -2%, Shiba -5%, PEPE -4%, PENGU -6%, BONK -5%, TRUMP -2%, SPX -8%, and FARTCOIN -22%
• dydx announced a partnership with Bonk to launch Bonk DEX
• 67 (+86%), ALCH (+20%) and ACT (+25%) led top movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

• The Rainbow Wallet team shared new details on its class F token structure, solving the issue of tokens not equating to equity (ICO ends today)
• Football dot Fun reached their ICO soft cap of $3M yesterday ahead of today’s ICO closing
• Gondi introduced new trade combinations across token types
• Uniswap submitted its proposal for governance vote to burn 100M UNI and turn on fee switch
• Hyperlend announced its airdrop terms and conditions ahead of its airdrop, with eligible participants on a 30-day clock to accept to qualify
• Solstice announced its ICO coming on Legion on Dec 22

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• NFT leaders were mixed; Punks even at 27 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 4.62, BAYC -1% at 4.94 ETH; Hypurr’s +3% at 456 HYPE
• Rovers (+60%) were a notable mover