Coinbase's (COIN) stock price surged to more than $330—a three-year-high—earlier this week amid a broader cryptocurrency and stock market boom fueled by President-elect Donald Trump's re-election.
The dizzying rally, which peaked on Monday, likewise catapulted MicroStrategy's (MSTR) stock to a record-high $351 per share, while Bitcoin topped out above $93,000, beating its previous pre-election peak by nearly $20,000. Meanwhile, COIN shares swelled to $334—not far off from the stock's all-time high price of $357 set in 2021.
The record-smashing week for digital assets and crypto-related stocks has raised a critical question for Coinbase's investors: Will COIN shares rally to a new all-time high?
Experts told Decrypt that a new peak price for COIN is certainly a possibility amid the crypto markets boom and optimism around friendlier U.S. regulation ahead, although it's still too early to tell. Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts on average forecast COIN shares will remain far below their all-time high within the next year.
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COIN's average price target rests at $250.31 over a 12-month horizon, with a high forecast of $400 and a low forecast of $165, according to stock market research platform TipRanks. Nine analysts have marked COIN stock as a buy, while eight have advised holding the company's shares. Just one market expert recommends selling COIN.
The company's stock is trading at $293 at the time of writing, up 49% over the last month.
Ultimately, COIN’s ability to exceed its forecasted price target is contingent upon a host of factors, two analysts told Decrypt. Chief among those is whether president-elect Trump will fulfill his campaign promises to fire Gary Gensler—if the SEC Chair doesn’t resign first—as well as protect the right to self-custody one’s crypto and limit restrictions against Bitcoin mining operations in the U.S., they said.
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The company’s growth will also depend on its ability to maintain a firm grip on the U.S. market, even as competing trading platforms vie for its market share.
“[Coinbase CEO] Brian Armstrong has said that he's committed to their U.S. operations,” Piper Sandler VP and Senior Research Analyst Patrick Moley told Decrypt, “and I think that the change in sentiment in DC should allow that to happen.”
Analysts are already seeing signs that the bull could continue to run for Coinbase following Trump's return to office.
Coinbase’s exchange trading volume has surged nearly 400% to roughly $11 billion in the 10 days following Trump's re-election, CoinGecko data shows. The spike signals that a retail crypto trading boom could be underway, according to analysts.
The increased market activity could, in turn, bring in big bucks for Coinbase, whose trading fees account for the majority of its revenue, Oppenheimer & Co. Senior Analyst Owen Lau told Decrypt. And the potential for friendlier regulation of crypto assets could be driving some of that momentum.
“Trading volumes went up a lot over the past few days, and part of that was driven by these [altcoin] trades that people didn't have the guts to touch over the past 12 months or so—because people are worried that SEC may go after them,” Lau said. “What you see when we have this kind of pro-crypto environment… [is that] people are more willing to bet on all kinds of [tokens].”
But while an increase in U.S. retail traders’ appetite for volatile cryptocurrencies is, on the face of things, a boon for Coinbase’s bottom line, those gains won't be realized without challenges.
As more traders begin dabbling in crypto in the U.S., a host of competing exchanges will likely attempt to step onto Coinbase’s home turf, potentially cutting into the trading platform’s market share and profit, Moley told Decrypt.
Coinbase's market dominance has declined in recent months, as smaller crypto-native exchanges encroach upon its business, a September report from crypto research firm Kaiko shows. The trading platform's market share slid to 41% in September, down from roughly 54% last March, the data shows.
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Coinbase also faces competition from TradFI exchanges that are embracing crypto amid this latest digital asset market resurgence.
Robinhood, which acquired Bitstamp last spring, is one such trading platform that is actively expanding its crypto services and could pose a threat to Coinbase, Moley said. The stock and crypto platform offers support for the trading of 19 tokens, in addition to staking for Solana and Ethereum, its website shows.
Still, Coinbase's first-mover advantage over prospective challengers could help the trading platform stave off TradFi competitors vying to take a bite out of its market share in the U.S.
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“There will be other traditional finance players that will come into the space as we get more regulatory clarity,” Moley said. “[But] newcomers have much less robust offerings than Coinbase.”
Ultimately, it's still too early to tell the extent to which any potential shift in U.S. crypto policy and regulations will spur trading in the U.S., benefiting Coinbase’s bottom line, Lau told Decrypt.
“It's just hard to quantify how much tangible benefit or incremental revenue benefit Coinbase can get in the near-term,” Lau said. “We see the volume in the near term, but the question becomes this: Can it be sustainable next year?”
Edited by Andrew Hayward
