Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes now believes that the crypto markets will top out in the middle of March, and then suffer a "severe" correction.
His latest essay begins by talking about how conditions for skiing in Japan are imperiled by a type of bamboo known as "sasa."
Hayes explains that heavy snowfall in Hokkaido meant resorts were able to open prematurely—and drawing parallels to crypto, he argues that a correction he predicted came earlier than expected, too.
Last month, the entrepreneur warned that painful sell-offs would happen when Donald Trump took office, with investors making the brutal realization that the president can't deliver all his pro-crypto promises.
US Likely Won't Purchase Bitcoin, But Arthur Hayes Isn't Worried
Entrepreneur and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes fears Bitcoin will suffer a "vicious sell-off" around the time Donald Trump takes office. In a characteristically lengthy blog post (which followed a 300-word introduction about yoga) the trader warned that crypto investors have unrealistically high expectations for what the president can achieve. While Trump has promised to make America "the crypto capital of the world" and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Hayes says his administration will...
But he now believes this so-called "Trump dump" has already taken place, from the middle of December until the end of the year.
On Substack, Hayes writes that increasing dollar liquidity in the first three months of 2025 has the potential to offset disappointment in White House policy and create "positive momentum" for crypto.
"The sasa of a letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be covered by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, an increase of up to $612 billion in the first quarter," he adds.
And in terms of putting this into action as a crypto trader, Hayes says late March will be the time to sell up "and chill on the beach."
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Explaining his strategy as Maelstrom's chief investment officer, Hayes says he will now "encourage the risk-takers at the fund to turn the risk dial to DEGEN," and ape into decentralized science (DeSci) "shitcoins."
Hayes went on to admit that his latest essay marks a U-turn on how Trump will affect the crypto markets—and while he says he may be a "shitty prognosticator of the future," at least he is ingesting new information and changing his opinions before opportunities are missed.
"Imagine you made a hole-in-one every time you hit a golf ball, sunk every three-point shot taken in basketball or off the break, and always pocketed every ball playing billiards. Life would be excruciatingly dull," he writes.
This isn't the first time that Hayes has confessed to having a low accuracy rate with his predictions (25% in 12 months, at one count.) But in his eyes, all that matters is to bring "hopefully a bit more success than failure."
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
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