When the Bitcoin price tanks, traders tend to take cover and look for signs that the market has reached bottom and will reverse its trajectory.
To that end, Bitcoin billionaire and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has some cautious optimism to share. "While I don’t expect crypto to fully realize the recent U.S. monetary announcements’ inflationary nature immediately," he wrote in a blog post, "I expect prices to bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher."
In other words, he thinks that the worst is over—for now.
Earlier this week, Bitcoin crashed below $57,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting. But when Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that interest rates would again remain unchanged—which many investors were expecting—prices traded sideways.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has reclaimed $61,000 for the first time since the end of April, having gained 4.6% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
While Hayes predicts that the bottom is in for Bitcoin, his strategy does not include adding to his BTC bags.
"I certainly won’t be babysitting Bitcoin when I could be two-stepping," he wrote, adding that, "The recent intense puke out provides an excellent opportunity to unstake my USDe and spend synthetic dollars on high beta shitcoins. I’m buying Solana and doggie coins for momentum trading positions."
The good news, he said, is that recent developments at the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the recent bailout of Republic First Bank are all indicators that dollar liquidity will start to increase. It was only just a month ago—ahead of the most recent Bitcoin halving—that Hayes was bearish on prices because of dwindling dollar liquidity.
Bitcoin Billionaire Arthur Hayes Is Bearish on the Halving—Here's Why
Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes expects risky assets, like crypto, will have a tough time until May. That means the market could be in for prices slumping, rather than soaring, around the BTC halving. "The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs," the BitMEX co-founder and former CEO wrote in his latest essay. "That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general wil...
One of the main macroeconomic indicators he highlight was the Federal Reserve preparing to borrow more money between now and the end of June—approximately $41 billion than previously announced in January.
"That’s no bueno if you are a holder of Treasuries," Hayes explained, saying that this will bump up the supply of Treasury bonds. That, he said, will likely increase long-term bond rates.
"Yellen’s response to that will be some form of yield curve control," he wrote in the blog post, "and that’s when Bitcoin begins its ascent for realz to $1 million."
