Most Public Bitcoin Mining Firms Will Survive the Halving: Analysis

Experts say that Bitcoin’s massive price surge—interrupted, for the moment, by a deep dip—has paved a safe path forward for Bitcoin mining companies post-halving.

Back in January, Cantor Fitzgerald estimated the average “all-in” cost to mine one coin for several publicly traded Bitcoin mining firms after the halving in April, which will cut miner revenues in half in BTC terms. Bitcoin traded for $40,000 at the time, leaving just two of 13 firms in the profit zone.

At today’s price of $67,000, however, every firm analyzed—including Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Iris Energy (IREN)—would be firmly in the green.

Self-reported performance figures from the miners would appear to back that up.

In its February Investor Update, Iris Energy said its electricity cost per BTC was $20,158, implying it will spend approximately $40,000 to mine coins after the halving.

It's a promising sign for long-term buyers of mining stocks, whose investments have bled substantially since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January.

While other Bitcoin equity proxies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) have recovered substantially from the post-launch dip, most miners continue to fall as fears around the halving plague the entire industry.

CleanSpark (CLSK) stands as one of the only exceptions, up 57% year-to-date, roughly in line with the gains of BTC itself. By both the company’s measures and Cantor’s analysis, CleanSpark’s mining cost per coin will remain under $37,000—and likely much lower.

“CLSK are doing things well, growing quickly and doing it through dilution, which is probably the best way,” Anthony Power, CEO of Power Mining Analysis, told Decrypt. “CLSK grew 6.0 exahashes per second (60%) YTD - that’s why the stock price is higher.”

Power named Bitdeer as another highly efficient contender, saying it is “the complete vertically integrated BTC mining company.” Between its self-mining fleet, hosting services, cloud-based mining, and ASIC production, the firm’s “cash cost” per Bitcoin mined stood at just $18,319 as of the third quarter of 2023, per the analysts' calculations.

“Cash costs are everything you need to pay for with cash,” he explained. “Excludes depreciation and stock compensation.”

Cantor’s January estimate placed Bitdeer’s cost per mined coin at just $17,744 post-halving, substantially lower than all competitors.

Edited by Ryan Ozawa.