Morning Minute: Bitcoin Breaks Below $100K for First Time Since May

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors fall another 2-5% but begin to recover; BTC at $102,300
• Mando vs KBM bet resolves as Bitcoin briefly slips below $100k
• ZKsync shares plans for ZK token utility, pumps 25%
• Gemini shares plans to launch a prediction market
• Sequans DAT sells $100M in Bitcoin, becomes latest DAT seller

BitcoinBTC · USD

$81,254+5.06%

24H7D1M1YYTD

Sep 12Sep 14Sep 16Sep 17Sep 19

$81.7k$79.6k$77.5k$75.5k

24h HighHigh$81,675

24h LowLow$77,934

VolVol$1.6B

Market projectionsOdds by Myriad

Today$80,000 to $82,000$80k–$82k93% chanceThis week$80,000 to $82,000$80k–$82k93% chance

Price data by CoinGeckoCoinGeckoMore Bitcoin news and projections →

📉 Bitcoin Breaks $100K for First Time Since May

Bitcoin finally cracked below $100,000 for the first time since summer.

But beneath the carnage, there are reasons for optimism.

📌 What Happened

BTC dropped ~6% on Tuesday to dip just under $100K, triggering a wave of over $2B in long liquidations across exchanges.

The sell cascade resolved one of the longer standing prediction markets on Myriad, with $100k officially hitting before $120k in the now infamous “Mando vs KBM” bet that KBM one (pour one out for the bulls).

Looking down the risk curve, ETH and SOL followed Bitcoin, each down 10–15% with ETH falling below $3,100 and SOL going sub-$150.

Several alts and memes dropped even more, with several down 30-60%+ on the month.

All while sentiment remains in Extreme Fear (thought 2 points higher than Monday).

But (and there is a but) - a recovery is seemingly in the works.

This morning, BTC is back to $102,000 and climbing; ETH is back over $3,340 and SOL is closing in on $160.

🗣️ What They’re Saying

“-38% on ETH from the top so far last cycle after breaking successive ATHs, we saw drawdowns (and recoveries after each one) of: -37% in February ‘21 -23% in April ‘21 -60% in May-July ‘21, -34% in September ‘21 each one was an existential crisis maybe this is the start of the multi-year bear, or maybe people forgot what bull markets feel like” - DCinvestor, on X

🧠 Why It Matters

It’s easy to freak out under these circumstances (and you wouldn’t be alone).

But there are reasons for optimism.

For one, pullbacks like this are common for major crypto assets. Yes the volatility is not fun to endure in the moment, but it is what has historically been the price for outsized gains.

Second, the US government shutdown (a big and growing economic overhang in the US) is showing signs of promise that it may be ending soon.

And the primary macro bull case that has driven this entire cycle is still alive. ETF inflows are ongoing, 401k access is coming, government spending is ever-rising (debasement trade), the US is actively embracing Bitcoin and building in crypto in the United States has never been easier.

Don’t capitulate and let the Bankers steal your Bitcoin…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A few Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are down another 2-5% but recovering after Bitcoin wicked below $100k; BTC -2% at $102,100, ETH -5% at $3,320, BNB -1% at $945, SOL -2% at $157
• ZK (+24%), DASH (+12%), ASTER (+12%) and HYPE (+9%) led top movers
• Liquidations topped $1.7B on Tuesday as Bitcoin slid below $100k and ETH fell near $3,000
• Fear and Greed notched up 2 points to 23 but remains in Extreme Fear
• Berachain restarted its chain after a ~day-long shut down following the Balancer exploit, funds returned
• Chainlink introduced the Chainlink Runtime Environment (CRE), allowing institutions to deploy smart contracts across multiple blockchains with built-in compliance and legacy finance integration
• Gemini plans to launch a prediction market and applied for a DCM license from the CFTC back in May
• Marathon Digital (MARA) revenue hit a record in Q3 at ~$252M as they continue expansion into AI compute services

In Corporate Treasuries / ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $566.4 in net outflows on Tuesday, with ETH seeing $219.4M in outflows
• The Solana Bitwise ETFs saw $15M in net inflows keeping the streak going
• Sequans (semiconductor manufacturer turned BTC DAT) sold $100M in Bitcoin, becomes latest DAT to begin to unwind
• Hut 8 joined the top-10 public BTC treasuries with holdings surpassing 13,000 BTC
• Saylor’s STRC hit $100 for the first time on Tuesday

In Memes

• Memecoin leaders are mixed after their recent downturn; DOGE -1%, Shiba -2%, PEPE -2%, PENGU even, BONK +1%, TRUMP -1%, SPX +4%, and FARTCOIN +2%
• jellyjelly briefly spiked to $500M before retracing nearly 60% to $222M
• 1 (+80% to $27M) and ALCH (+27% to $70M) were notable movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:

• MoonPay partnered with Pump.fun to allow onramping with Revolut, Venmo, Google Pay & PayPal into the Pump app
• ZKSync announced utility plans for its ZK token, including buybacks and burns
• Timefun announced that it is closing shop and transitioning to a new product (over time), and that anyone with funds on the app should start the process of withdrawing

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• NFT leaders were mixed but recovering Punks -1% at 35.5 ETH, Pudgy +2.5% at 5.56, BAYC +1% at 5.9 ETH; Hypurr’s +2% at 895 HYPE
• Moonbirds +27% and Kodas +15% were notable movers
• Cooper Flagg’s first NBA Top Shot Moment (jersey match serial) sold for $14,000 in burned Moments on Tuesday (then resold for $12,500)
• NBA Top Shot also introduced an updated marketplace UI with price history, trends, new analytics and more
• Virtuals and Pudgy Penguins partnered to introduce Pudgy AI, allowing users to turn any post into tailored Pengu videos with the help of an AI assistant