Kamala Flips Biden: Crypto Markets Surge for VP as Democratic Nominee

Will Biden bow out? Crypto bettors are wagering millions on the possibility that U.S. president Joe Biden will step aside amid concerns over his candidacy, with the leading crypto prediction market showing a 73% chance that he will drop out of the 2024 election. And vice president Kamala Harris has taken the lead in a head-to-head showdown over the expected Democratic nominee.

This follows a sustained clarion call for Biden to step down that has only grown since last Thursday’s troublesome debate. The New York Times reported early Wednesday that Biden told an ally that he’s considering whether to drop out of the race, though a White House official called the story false. Even so, the report immediately led to a flurry of activity on the burgeoning prediction market, Polymarket. 

The trading platform saw Biden’s chances of stepping down climb steadily overnight, and by early Wednesday morning shoot over 15 points between 7:30 and 8:30, from 60% to 76%, directly following publication of the Times piece.

The figure now stands at 73%. On Tuesday, the president’s chances of stepping down had been estimated at only 45%, within a pool of users betting over $10 million in total.

For the first time since polling began on the prediction market, Kamala Harris now has a 43% chance of becoming the Democratic nominee, according to bettors, surpassing the incumbent Biden with a 34% chance as of this writing.

California governor Gavin Newsom’s chances rose slightly from 3% to 7%, sitting behind a 13% chance for “Other (Incl. Whitmer)”—referring to Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer—and 8% bet that former first lady Michelle Obama will be picked.

This is a staggering fluctuation for Harris from late Tuesday, when, as Decrypt reported, her chances of becoming the nominee had only risen to 31%, well behind Biden’s own 58% at the time. The switch in positions indicates not only a continuing lack of confidence that Biden will stick out the campaign this fall, but also a reality check amongst the crypto community and prediction market users that VP Harris will be the realistic choice to step into the limelight.

Elsewhere in the cryptosphere, the meme coin cipher for the VP, Solana token KAMA, continued to soar as well in the early hours Wednesday. Up from a trading high of $0.0096 last night, the coin shot up to $0.0185 following the reported discussion within the Biden campaign.

The coin has stabilized down to $0.015, while the market cap for the coin has grown to $16 million as of this writing, indicating a user confidence in the VP’s chances to take the reins for the Democratic party in the election ahead.

After a disastrous week for the 80 year-old U.S. president, the Times report suggests that Biden is hearing the concerns about his ability to continue. His campaign reportedly sees an interview with George Stefanopoulos and two rallies this weekend as crucial steps to reinstill confidence among a wavering public.

However, public outcry—driven in part by drastic changes in polling within prediction markets and crypto trading—could force the president’s hand sooner than he may have hoped.

Edited by Andrew Hayward