Will the Senate Banking Committee approve a crypto market structure bill before 2026?

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From the publication date through December 29, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
• Market Close: December 29, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, 48 hours before Resolution Time.
• Resolution Deadline: December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM or earlier if the committee vote occurs.

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves to “Yes” if the Senate Banking Committee passes its crypto market structure bill—referred to as the Responsible Financial Innovation Act as of November 2025—out of committee on or before December 31, 2025.
• Resolves to “No” if otherwise.

Resolution Details:

• Primary resolution source: Senate Banking Committee meeting livestreams and recordings.
• Secondary source: official Senate Banking Committee press releases.
• Confirmation must come from publicly accessible committee records or footage showing the committee vote.

Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions:

• Committee records or footage are unavailable or unreliable.
• Significant changes make it impossible to determine whether the same bill is being voted on.
• Any circumstance that makes this market impossible to resolve.

If cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation.