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When will BTC reach a new All-Time High?

Bitcoin ATH before December 31 2026?

92% No· resolves Jan 1, 2027· $844.7 volume

Chance of yes

  • Before 20278%
  • Before October3%

Trade this market on Myriad

Why this matters

UK Bank Blockades on Bitcoin Transfers Weigh on Retail Access

Sustained UK retail banking friction constrains Bitcoin demand, keeping ATH timeline uncertain — the event's resolution directly depends on whether access barriers like these are cleared.

  • 40% of UK bank-to-exchange transfers blocked, Parliament told

    The UK Cryptoasset Business Council found 40% of attempted transfers to digital asset exchanges are blocked or delayed. The scale of friction directly suppresses retail Bitcoin demand by cutting off fiat on-ramps for UK buyers.

  • Parliamentary group presses bank chiefs over blanket crypto bans

    Labour MP Gurinder Singh Josan and Lord Vaizey wrote to major UK bank CEOs after repeated complaints of firms unable to open accounts. MPs called sector-wide risk treatment 'an unnecessary piece of friction,' signaling political pressure but no near-term policy fix.

  • Incoming UK crypto rules may shift banks, but timeline remains open

    Parliament asked banks whether forthcoming UK crypto regulation could change their approach, per CryptoNews. Until rules take effect, exchanges and retail users face continued banking restrictions — a structural demand headwind with no clear resolution date.

Strive's 1,110 BTC Buy Signals Continued Corporate Accumulation

Sustained corporate accumulation from firms like Strive reduces circulating supply and adds institutional demand pressure, directly bearing on when BTC could set a new all-time high.

  • Strive adds 1,110 BTC at $73,409 average, now holds 21,356 coins

    The $81.5 million purchase, made Aug. 17–21 and disclosed via SEC Form 8-K, lifted Strive to the seventh-largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder. With BTC trading near $79,000 on Monday — roughly 8% above Strive's average cost — the position is immediately profitable, validating the buy signal.

  • ASST shares jump 11% on announcement, up 36% year-to-date

    Strive's Nasdaq-listed Class A shares rose more than 11% on Monday morning following the disclosure, extending year-to-date gains to roughly 36% per Yahoo Finance. The equity market's positive reaction reinforces the perception that corporate BTC accumulation strategies are still rewarded by investors.

  • CEO Cole plans $2.1B expansion of ATM programs to fund further BTC buying

    In late May 2026, CEO Matt Cole announced plans to increase both the ASST and SATA at-the-market programs by $2.1 billion each, citing sustained demand for the company's listed securities. This structural capital pipeline signals Strive intends continued large-scale Bitcoin accumulation going forward.

Citadel's 'Financial Repression' Warning Reinforces Bitcoin Debasement Hedge Case

Citadel's financial repression warning amplifies the debasement trade driving Bitcoin higher, making the timing of a new ATH directly relevant to this event.

  • Citadel labels Treasury buyback 'financial repression,' flagging dollar and inflation risk

    Citadel Securities, a prominent Wall Street voice, warned that Treasury's bond buyback program — which at least doubles operations to $4B per trade in longer-dated sectors effective September 9 — constitutes financial repression that risks weakening the dollar and stoking inflation, a macro backdrop that historically drives Bitcoin demand.

  • Treasury doubles long-bond buybacks through November, cementing yield-suppression strategy

    The U.S. Treasury confirmed buyback sizes for 10- to 30-year nominal coupon securities will rise to at least $4B per operation, up from a $2B maximum, through November 4, 2026. The sustained structural commitment — not a one-off — deepens the debasement narrative that has already powered Bitcoin's recent breakout.

  • Next Quarterly Refunding on November 4 sets stage for further buyback escalation

    Treasury flagged its November 4 Quarterly Refunding as the venue for announcing future buyback sizes, signaling the program could expand further. Open-ended fiscal intervention of this scale keeps the dollar-weakness and inflation-risk narrative alive for the remainder of the quarter.

Debasement Trade Fuels Bitcoin's Best Week Since 2023

A 23% weekly surge driven by structural debasement forces directly raises the probability and timing of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high, making this the most relevant forward-looking market.

  • Treasury buyback and $40T debt milestone triggered Bitcoin's 23% weekly surge

    The Treasury's plan to at least double long-bond purchases, announced the same day US national debt crossed $40 trillion, triggered a dollar sell-off and pushed Bitcoin up more than 23% — its strongest weekly gain since 2023, per Opening Bell Daily data.

  • Over $4B in short positions liquidated, amplifying Bitcoin's breakout above $77,000

    Bitcoin had been range-bound between $62,000 and $67,000 for weeks. When it broke $67,000, forced short-covering added momentum, and by Friday more than $4 billion in bearish crypto positions were liquidated, per CoinGlass, lifting BTC above $77,000.

  • AI-driven scarcity narrative adds structural tailwind beyond macro dollar weakness

    Analyst Matt Cole, reposted widely on August 24, argued Bitcoin priced in gold signals the next cycle will be the strongest ever, citing both the dollar debasement thesis and a growing hunt for scarcity in an AI-driven world — a demand catalyst beyond the near-term macro trade.

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