Election time! The battle between “Sleepy” Joe Biden and “Tiny Hands” Trump will be fought at the polls tonight, and perhaps in the courts over the coming weeks. But what’s this doing to Bitcoin, and how does 2020’s election stack up to the last election?
Bitcoin’s price on election day is $13,685, according to metrics site CoinMarketCap, up 1.82% in the past 24 hours.
On 2016’s election night, when President Trump beat “Crazy/Crooked/Lyin’” Hillary Clinton, the price of a single Bitcoin was $700. Upon Trump’s victory, Bitcoin shot up to $735. That’s an 18x increase in the price of Bitcoin over the last four years.
And how about 2012, when “Cheatin'” Obama beat “Choke-artist” Mitt Romney? Data’s hazy, but Bitcoin was worth about $11.2 in October, and $12.56 in November, per Statista. For those "shoulda bought Bitcoin way back when" folks out there, yes, that's a 1,000X increase to its price since Obama's second term.
If nothing else, the vast differences in prices show just how much can change between elections.
As America tests the foundations of its democracy this month, so too shall Bitcoin traders test new prices. Last month, Bitcoin’s price rose from about $10,500 at the start of the month to highs of just over $14,000 over the weekend.
Lots of people think that Bitcoin is uncorrelated from global events: the so-called “safe haven” theory. As an asset class that investors pitch as insulated against political events, will it remain unfazed by the election?
Only the ballots will tell—unless Trump or Biden disputes them.
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.