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Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our new daily news show covering all of the top stories in 5 minutes, downloadable on Apple Pod or Spotify.
GM!
Today’s top news:
Crypto majors fall 1-2% as BTC goes sub-$60k before rebounding
Strategy’s common stock and its preferred shares both cratered to 52-week lows on Wednesday. The treasury model Michael Saylor built is being stress-tested in real time.
MSTR fell 9.35% to $94.13, touching a 52-week low of $92.28 intraday, a staggering fall from its 52-week high of $457.22. STRC, the dividend-paying preferred share Saylor has leaned on to fund Bitcoin purchases, dropped 7.41% to $80.84, also a 52-week low and now well below its $100 par value. Bitcoin itself slid to $59,200 during the selloff, but recovered to $61k after Micron smashed earnings. Both MSTR and STRC recovered modestly after hours as well.
The billion-dollar question now—will the reckoning reaching a head? And if so, when? Monday’s $300 million cash raise was meant to steady STRC, and three days later it printed a new low anyway. It seems clear that the market isn’t convinced cash alone fixes the problem. The deeper issue is the doom loop. The more MSTR falls, the less ammo Saylor has to buy Bitcoin or even raise cash to pay off his debt (although he does have ~10 months debt covered with his current cash pile).
Some think Saylor should sell a massive chunk of BTC now and just reset. Others think that BTC whales are actually trying to blow up Saylor and drive BTC lower to force his hand. We can’t be sure all the mechanics at play. But one thing is certain—the roller coaster ride isn’t over yet. Buckle up…
It makes intuitive sense to me that there would be a group of sophisticated, deep-pocketed BTC bulls that are currently trying to figure out how to collapse the MSTR cap structure by any means necessary, so as to force a puke of the BTC currently held.
🎯 Kalshi Targets a $40 Billion Valuation as Sports Betting Drives Volume
Kalshi is in talks to raise fresh funding at a roughly $40 billion valuation, according to a Financial Times report. That’s nearly double the $22 billion valuation from the $1 billion round it closed just 3 months ago in April.
The jump comes as trading volume exploded to more than $17 billion last month and is pacing to $25B+ in June, up from under $5 billion a year earlier, with sports-related contracts making up about 65% of that total. For perspective, Kalshi has already cleared $5B+ in World Cup volume and the tourney isn’t half over.
To give credit where it’s due, it’s not just sports driving Kalshi’s growth. Kalshi’s crypto markets have grown into a $1B/week market sector as well, 20x growth since December 2025. And now they’re rolling out legal perps which should drive those volumes even higher. Overall, Kalshi has nearly 3x the open interest of Polymarket across market sectors, with $1.1B compares to $484M.
That growth is leading to a massive spike in fees as well. Last June, Kalshi made $8M in fees. This June, they already cleared $180M with 5 days left in the month. That puts them over $800M in fees in H1 2026, with 10-20% growth month-over-month. That $40B price tag may very well look cheap at the end of the year…
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
Crypto majors are mostly red; BTC -3% at $61.2k; ETH -3% at $1,630; SOL -3% at $68; HYPE even at $62.75
STABLE (+8%), AAVE (+6%) and MORPHO (+5%) led top movers
Oil -2% at $69.40; Gold -0.2% at $4,000
Stock futures are big green after Micron’s earnings beat; DOW +0.3%, Nasdaq +2.2%
Trumprefused to sign the housing bill containing the CBDC ban and abruptly cancelled the signing celebration, demanding Congress approve an elections bill first, a move that pauses the CBDC prohibition and could delay or imperil the CLARITY Act
Binancewithdrew its MiCA license application in Greece and said it will pursue approval in another EU state, scrambling to preserve its European access before its current permissions lapse on June 30
