Ethereum spot exchange traded funds (ETFs) are trading in the US, but you might not guess it from looking at the price.
In fact, ETH has sunk 8.2% over the week since the ETFs went live. This has caused investors to question when Ethereum’s price will start to rise as a result of the new funds buying ETH and creating more scarcity. Market analysts and crypto experts believe it'll be some time before the new ETFs start making an impact.
“When observing the current price of Ethereum (ETH), it is worth remembering that after the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, despite the influx of new capital, the cryptocurrency saw an almost 18% decline,” market analyst at Conotoxia Ltd., Grzegorz Drozdz, told Decrypt, “followed by an almost 100% rally. It is possible that we will see a similar relationship for Ethereum ETFs.”
By looking back at how Bitcoin’s spot ETFs impacted the market, analysts are able to make predictions when it comes to how the new Ethereum ETFs will influence its price. Bitcoin started at $46,000 when the ETFs began trading, but fell below $39,000 within two weeks of the funds going live. Then, over the next two months, it skyrocketed to $73,000 as record inflows put the leading cryptocurrency into price discovery mode.
“The assumption that the ETH price action will be similar to previous trends is reasonable, but the lingering impact of the Mt. Gox incident should also be considered,” Jupiter Zheng, Partner at Liquid Fund at Hong Kong ETH ETF issuer HashKey Capital, told Decrypt. “However, I think we will see clearer positive signals for Ethereum after August.”
Mt. Gox was the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange until it shut down in 2014, after discovering large-scale Bitcoin thefts. Now, a decade later, these payments to its creditors have begun. There’s a lingering fear that the billions repaid to creditors will cause a major selloff that could drag the price of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market down.
But this isn’t the only event that might be dampening sentiment around Ethereum. One of the most glaring is the U.S. Presidential election. Already the twists and turns of the election have influenced the crypto market.
Bartosz Lipinski, CEO of crypto exchange Cube Exchange, believes that investors are sitting out until Trump speaks at the Bitcoin Conference. Many of them are expecting a major announcement that will buoy the crypto market, he added.
“Macro markets are always a factor, regardless of how much excitement a new product brings or how much fresh capital it will funnel in the medium and long-term,” Justin d'Anethan, Head of Business Development (APAC) at Keyrock, added.
Fortunately, the federal reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year. The first is expected to take place in September, followed by a second in December, according to a Reuters survey that polled 100 economists.
“Ethereum is considered the king of altcoins, so significant interest might only come during an alt season, which is unlikely until interest rates lower and more risk-on funds pour in,” Chief Economist at BIT Mining, Youwei Yang, said.
While there are a lot of factors currently pushing the price of crypto down, experts are optimistic that in the long-run strong inflows from Ethereum ETFs and macroeconomic factors disappearing could lead to a good end to the year.
“Historically, November is considered the strongest month for cryptocurrencies.” Sergei Gorev, risk manager at YouHodler, explained, “All these factors can lead to a significant increase in quotations in the autumn, after a period of low business activity in the summer during the vacation period.”
Edited by Stacy Elliott.