Biden Dropout, Harris Endorsement Push Polymarket Betting to Daily Records

As President Joe Biden’s re-election bid ended Sunday, Polymarket traders reacted with a record-setting flurry of daily bets, establishing new positions alongside his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor in the White House.

The blockchain-based prediction platform registered $24 million in volume as a new chapter opened in the 2024 presidential race, according to a Dune dashboard. At the same time, the platform’s active daily users spiked to a record-setting 5,900 amid Biden’s withdrawal.

Leveraging the free market in a user-driven search for truth, Polymarket’s odds have increasingly gained traction as a gauge for the future come November. That includes whether Biden would be on the ticket himself following a disastrous debate performance last month.

Heading into the event that rocked Biden’s bid, his odds of becoming the Democratic Nominee stood around 90%. They whipsawed thereafter, mostly heading down, before crashing to a less than 1% chance Sunday as the dust finally settled.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin lauded Polymarket on Twitter after Biden stepped aside, for “predicting [Sunday’s] outcomes well in advance” and providing insight into the Democratic Party’s prospective torch-bearer through “conditional odds of different candidates.”

In terms of who could be at the top of the Democratic Party’s ticket, bets on Harris and former First Lady Michelle Obama ran red-hot. For example, a single user bet $430,000 on Harris across several transactions Sunday, while another user put at least $29,000 behind Obama.

Across all markets on the platform, 9 out of the top 10 ranked by volume centered on politics. The only other comparable focus among traders was when the Federal Reserve will cut rates.

Polymarket’s monthly volume surged to $111 million in June, pushed into record-setting territory as the U.S. election season drew ever closer. As this month has delivered several election twists, Polymarket’s monthly trading volume has nearly doubled to $210 million in July, so far.

Popular political bets on Polymarket can be far-reaching at times, while some are incredibly specific. One focuses on whether Biden could deliver a video statement today, for example, while one looks at whether the current Commander-in-Chief will finish his presidential term, which he vowed to do in Sunday’s announcement.

As Democrats’ focus shifts toward Harris’ leadership, traders are positioning themselves around her potential pick for vice president too. With $11 million in total wagers, as of this writing, Polymarket’s users are currently leaning toward Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shaprio.

Edited by Andrew Hayward