Bitcoin Bull Run Among 'Most Robust' In History, Says Glassnode Analyst

Bitcoin’s current bull market run is one of the most robust in history, with the asset’s latest price correction looking like peanuts compared to past cycles, according to analysis from on-chain intelligence firm, Glassnode.

Since tapping its 3-year bottom at $15,500 after the collapse of FTX in November 2022, Bitcoin’s price never suffered more than a 20% drawdown during its climb back to all-time highs (ATH). Even after a significant pullback over the weekend to just under $67,000 at time of writing, Bitcoin is still only down 8% on the week.

“This speaks to one of the most robust, spot demand-driven BTC bull markets in history,” wrote Glassnode lead analyst James Check on Twitter on Sunday. “Objectively, it is one of the most robust, and least volatile uptrends in history.”

By comparison, all past cycles saw temporary bull market drawdown periods exceeding 30%. The 2018-to-2021 bull market, for example, had a drastic 60%+ pullback on “Black Thursday” in March 2020 before Bitcoin rallied over 15X over the following year.

Blockchain data shows that long-term holders—defined as entities holding their coins for at least 155 days—have sold their coins in droves in recent months as Bitcoin approached its previous all-time high. They’ve relinquished 735,000 BTC since December, with roughly 60% of those coins attributable to massive outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

Now up 52% year to date, this year’s climb has driven up Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio—a measure of how much profit the average coin is sitting on at the time it was last bought. At $70,800, the metric rose one standard deviation above its mean, which is a common point at which investors feel incentivized to cash out, triggering brief bull market selloffs.

“It makes all the sense in the world for Bitcoin to take a pause here given MVRV reached +1 [standard deviation] levels, where numerous major corrections/peaks were hit in the past,” Check wrote.

Conversely, the selloff has driven up Bitcoin’s “realized cap” as old coins are bought up by new investors at much higher prices, meaning the average investor’s cost basis has increased. That’s a sign of large, fresh new inflows of capital into Bitcoin, meaning the bull market isn't finished yet.

“On-chain data continue to be remarkably reliable, with this ATH break looking almost exactly like prior ATH breaks,” Check concluded.

Edited by Andrew Hayward