'It's Now or Never' for Clarity Act, Says 'Bitcoin Senator' Lummis

Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a long-time proponent of Bitcoin and digital assets, says Democrats are out of reasons to reject the Clarity Act, but supporters of the landmark cryptocurrency legislation may be out of time.

Ahead of Tuesday's Senate vote, the Wyoming Republican argued that the final Clarity Act text gives Democrats what they asked for, including more than 120 negotiated changes and a new ethics framework covering the president, vice president, members of Congress and federal judges. Her message, in short: take yes for an answer.

She cautioned, however, that if lawmakers fail to gain enough support from Democrats to clear today’s vote on cloture—the Senate proceeding that would end debate and move the bill to a final vote—then there’s not going to be a next time.

“It's now or never for the Clarity Act,” Lummis posted on X.

Lummis told reporters earlier today that if the cloture vote fails “I think we’re done,” according to Punchbowl. “It's over. Because we've been working on this bill for over a year, and we've given them over 120 of their requests. That's enough,” she reportedly said.

The Clarity Act is the crypto industry's long-sought market structure bill, splitting oversight of digital assets between the SEC and CFTC and giving most tokens a clear regulatory home for the first time. The House passed its version in July 2025 by a 294-134 vote. The Senate Banking Committee followed in May 2026, clearing the bill 15-9 with only two Democratic votes.

Tuesday's vote is a cloture motion on H.R. 3633, not final passage. It requires 60 votes to end debate and move to the floor, meaning Republicans need roughly seven Democrats to cross over given their 53-seat majority. To get there, the White House agreed to new provisions barring federally elected officials, judges and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets, enforceable by state attorneys general with no expiration date.

Odds keep swinging

Prediction markets have whipsawed all week. Polymarket odds on the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 moved to 35% on Monday after the final text dropped, then fell back to 19% Tuesday once Democrats circulated a counterproposal. Traders currently see a 55% chance more than 50 senators vote yes today, but only a 32% chance the bill actually clears the 60-vote bar.

Predictors on Myriad Markets set the odds as low as 17.5%. A bit higher than today’s low at around 12%.

Not every Democrat is convinced the ethics language goes far enough. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the Banking Committee's top Democrat, plans to argue on the floor that the new rules still leave gaps around enforcement and don't clearly cover the Trump family's World Liberty Financial venture. Several Democratic holdouts have said the same about consumer protections and illicit-finance safeguards, even after Republicans revised the bill twice over the recess.

If cloture fails, the bill is effectively dead for 2026, with midterm campaigning set to consume the legislative calendar soon after. Supporters and community bankers have spent weeks lobbying senators directly in their home states over the bill's remaining provisions, including stablecoin yield rules that still worry the banking industry.

Crypto Markets Today

Traders are betting on uncertainty. Bitcoin sits at $76,212, down 3.3% and roughly 7% off its September high, while ether has dropped 4.64% to $2,414.55 and XRP is off 2.61% at $1.38. The total crypto market cap has slipped 2.99% to $2.6 trillion even as the Fear & Greed Index reads 65, still in "greed" territory.

Derivatives desks are seeing the volatility up close. The market logged $636.89 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours as the bearish mood increases, with liquidations split between $466.19 million in long positions and $170.69 million in shorts.

The voting is set to happen today at 2:15 p.m. ET.