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GM!
Today’s top news:
Crypto majors chop over the weekend, lag stocks; BTC steady at $60k
BTC ETFs see $1.79B in outflows on week, 3rd most ever
Brian Armstrong responds to criticism of Coinbase app promoting gambling
Unlicensed crypto firms in Europe face trouble ahead of July 1 MiCa deadline
ANSEM cools off after weekend run to $120M, now back at $80M
📉 Bitcoin Headed for Rare Back-to-Back Quarterly Loss
Bitcoin is trading just below $60,000 and is on track for a rare back-to-back quarterly loss.
It’s down roughly 12% this quarter after a 22% drop in Q1, which breaks its historically strong second-quarter pattern, with the quarter and first half both closing Tuesday. The selloff bottomed at a $58,115 low on June 26, a 20-month low, and the bounce since has been shallow.
The causes have been pretty consistent:
steady outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs (another $1.79B this past week)
a hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh
a dollar at 12-month highs
capital rotating into semiconductor and memory-chip stocks riding the AI boom.
The damage runs deeper in altcoins. ETH is down about 25% on the quarter and 47% on the year, and over the past week Dogecoin, XRP, and HYPE all posted double-digit losses. Solana held up a bit better, but is still down 43% on the year.
The back-to-back losses feed the bigger debate over whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is breaking, since a red 2026 would push the usual three-up, one-down rhythm into a second straight down stretch. But the bulls have a chart of their own.
Every time $BTC closed 2 red 6 month candles in a row, it was followed by a 3-year uptrend.
Every prior time Bitcoin closed two red six-month candles in a row, in 2018 and 2022, it was followed by a three-year uptrend. The second red six-month candle of this stretch closes in two days.
Pair that with a Fear and Greed reading of 18, deep in Extreme Fear, and the setup looks either like the start of a deeper breakdown or the kind of capitulation that has marked past bottoms. Let’s hope it’s the latter…
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
Crypto majors are mostly flat over the weekend; BTC -1% at $59.8k; ETH -1% at $1,570; SOL +1% at $72; HYPE even at $63.13
ENA (+4%), AVAX (+4%) and AAVE (+3%) led top movers
Oil even at $69.80; Gold -1% at $4,050
Stock futures are green after a new US-Iran truce; DOW +0.5%, Nasdaq +1.3%
Brian Armstrongresponded to criticism that the Coinbase app promotoes gambling on BTC price action and sports betting, stating that users are free to act how they want but that Coinase shouldn’t be aggressively promoting
Strategy’s enterprise mNAVfell below 1 for the first time, meaning the market now values the company at less than its Bitcoin holdings, erasing the premium that for years gave Saylor the flexibility to raise capital and buy more BTC
