Spot Bitcoin ETFs are roaring towards their best week in months, soaking up over $1.8 billion as the 2024 presidential election tightens in its final weeks, according to CoinShares data.
“The election is just really taking the front seat in terms of price performance,” CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill told Decrypt. “Macro data, which typically has been driving prices, would suggest that Bitcoin’s price should fall—and it hasn't recently.”
Butterfill pointed to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau Friday, which flashed a bearish signal as building permits fell 2.9% month-over-month in September. Gauging the strength of the U.S. housing market and economy, economists had penciled in a 0.1% decline.
In an ABC/Ipsos poll, Vice President Kamala Harris had a six-point lead over former President Donald Trump a month ago—but a refresh this week showed Trump gaining momentum. Conducted Oct. 4-8, Harris had 50% support compared to Trump’s 48% backing among likely voters.
With 17 days left until Election Day, traders are likely positioning themselves behind a Trump victory, Butterfill said. While Harris has made specific overtures to crypto owners recently, he said that “it's very clear the policies are much more favorable for Bitcoin under a Trump regime."
Largest inflows of US$1.85bn into Bitcoin ETFs since June based on flows so far this week. pic.twitter.com/AGp9C9v4Ib
— James Butterfill (@jbutterfill) October 18, 2024
The former president has embraced crypto on the campaign trail for months, styling himself as a defender of digital assets. From supporting Bitcoin miners in the U.S. to saying he’d fire Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler, Trump has made many crypto-specific promises.
This week, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF has taken in over $1 billion alone, representing its sixth largest week of inflows on record based on partial-week data. But the trend isn’t limited to just the Wall Street titan’s product, Butterfill said, with notable inflows across those from several asset managers.
“Even Grayscale has seen inflows,” Butterfill said, referring to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which had seen daily net flows flip positive just 14 times before a three-day streak this week.
The price of Bitcoin rose 2% Friday, hitting its highest price in over two months at just shy of $69,000. Meanwhile, open interest has increased 8.7% for Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange since Monday, showing a rising “basis-trade” among institutions, Butterfill said.
Gaining exposure to Bitcoin’s spot price through ETFs while selling futures, the trade “tends to really pick up in periods of quite positive price momentum,” Butterfill added.
On Polymarket, Trump’s odds have swelled to a 60% chance over Harris. Rising from 54% Monday, Bitwise Senior Investment Strategist Juan Leon told Decrypt in a statement that inflows have accelerated significantly alongside the platform’s betting activity.
Evidence of a Trump trade was echoed by Tom Dunleavy, a partner at the crypto investment firm MV Global. He told Decrypt in a statement that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have tracked Trump’s odds quite closely over the past couple of weeks.
“It’s becoming more clear that the market sees a Trump victory as extremely positive for the industry,” he said. “The flows into Bitcoin are almost a 1:1 correlation with the increase in Trump's election odds.”
Edited by Andrew Hayward