Bitcoin ETFs Draw $854M Over Five Days as Rate-Hike Bets Fade

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $853.5 million across five consecutive sessions last week, SoSoValue data shows, after a $61.5 million net outflow the week before, lifting cumulative net inflows since launch to $52.18 billion.

Around $690 million came through BlackRock's IBIT, about 80% of the week's total, according to Stephen Wundke, strategy and revenue director at Algoz Technologies. On Friday alone, IBIT drew $86.7 million and Fidelity's FBTC $41 million, while Invesco's BTCO shed $19.4 million and VanEck's HODL lost $10.6 million.

Momentum eased into the weekend, with daily inflows slipping from $128.7 million on Thursday to $98.9 million on Friday. The funds closed the week holding $79.5 billion, about 6.1% of Bitcoin's market capitalization.

"It shows that after the AI craze briefly entered a pullback period, institutional funds have started buying Bitcoin again," Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, told Decrypt, adding that the flows likely combine portfolio rebalancing with a degree of basis trading.

The macro read

Sun pointed to weakening U.S. employment data and falling rate-hike expectations as the more important catalysts. Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July against forecasts for a 95,000 gain, Friday figures revealed, with Bitcoin in a death cross as its 50-day moving average remained below its 200-day. CME FedWatch odds of a September hike fell to 40% from 55% on Friday, rising to 46% Monday.

Softening AI-linked equities have loosened the pull on global risk capital, Sun said, sending money toward less crowded assets. He identified $60,000 to $61,000 as support the market has repeatedly tested.

He cautioned against reading the week as a turn. The inflows are "not enough to support a trend reversal," Sun said, noting that hike odds have not disappeared and long-dated Treasury yields remain elevated.

CoinShares struck a warmer note. "Our view remains that the cycle lows are probably now behind us," head of research James Butterfill wrote in an update on Friday, while cautioning that "this does not imply an immediate return to strong upside." He expects Bitcoin to trade range-bound for two to three months, potentially toward $80,000. Bitcoin traded at around $65,100 Monday morning, up 0.4% on the day according to CoinGecko data.

Butterfill cited three consecutive weeks of whale accumulation after some $40 billion of whale selling since October 2025, alongside $1.05 billion of inflows into digital asset investment products globally last week, a broader measure than U.S. Bitcoin ETFs alone and a fifth straight positive week. That pattern "increasingly resembles capitulation followed by early re-accumulation," he wrote. A move toward $100,000 would require "a clearer deterioration in employment data and a more meaningful reduction in rate expectations," he added.

The Coldcard theory

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas floated a different explanation. IBIT, FBTC and several others have taken money every day since the Coldcard exploit began draining Bitcoin from air-gapped wallets, he tweeted, "making it hard not to see causation in the correlation." He called it the third-best week since October, and said it "would be ironic, but somehow on brand" if a theft from cold storage marked the start of the next run.

Decrypt reported this month that exchange deposits made up of sub-10 BTC transfers hit 7,300 BTC on July 31, the most since February, with CryptoQuant saying holders appeared to be moving coins for safety while noting the connection was not certain.

What could break the range

Wundke called it the funds' strongest week since April and said investors are treating current prices as a "bottom buying" opportunity. He sees little shifting before mid-September, when the Clarity Act gets another window and the Fed next meets, and doubts Republicans can find the votes in time. Traders are marginally less pessimistic, with Polymarket users pricing the bill's chances of becoming law this year at 21% on Monday, up from the 14% Butterfill cited on August 6.

Both looked to the Middle East instead. "Any realistic Iran peace deal would dampen inflation fears and very much temper the mood for rate rises," Wundke said, calling that the likelier catalyst for a market he described as oversold. For now, he added, it "mostly feels like 'Groundhog Day,'" with holiday malaise keeping volumes thin.