The Bitcoin price appears to be holding its breath ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has slid just below $83,000, having lost 0.8% in the past day, according to CoinGecko data.
Traders are moving a lot less Bitcoin than they were this time last week, when President Donald Trump's trade war again got put on pause. In the past 24 hours, $22 billion worth of Bitcoin has changed hands—a very sharp drop from the $49 billion worth of volume BTC saw a week ago.
Only 1% of traders are holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut tomorrow, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. President Trump has been among the voices calling for the Fed to drop rates.
"I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately. And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world," Trump said in remarks made over video to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The Bank of England and European Central Bank have all cut rates recently. And the Bank of Japan is expected to pause its rate hikes at its next meeting.
But the Fed hasn't budged.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said markets could see some positive action if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at least keeps hope alive that the FOMC will cut rates later in the year.
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"Crypto markets could see a short-term rally if the Fed signals future rate cuts, boosting risk appetite, or a dip if a hawkish stance reinforces tighter financial conditions. However, Bitcoin’s growing resilience and pro-crypto policy tailwinds might temper the broader market impact," he said in a market note shared with Decrypt.
Analysts at Singapore-based QCP Capital agreed that traders could shift sentiment if Powell leaves hope alive. "While we do not anticipate a surprise cut, any dovish signal from Powell could be the catalyst that sparks upside momentum," they wrote in a market note Tuesday morning.
Although Lee expects some volatility immediately during and after Powell's remarks, scheduled for tomorrow at 2 p.m. EST, Lee added that Bitcoin could drop as low as $80,000.
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"Post-FOMC, Bitcoin is expected to trade within $80,000–$86,000 with 80% confidence," he said, "while Ethereum is projected to move between $1,800–$2,100 under the same confidence level."
Users of MYRIAD, the decentralized prediction market launched by Decrypt's parent company DASTAN, are evenly split on whether Bitcoin's price will top $83,000 by the end of the day on March 23.
As macroeconomic turmoil has battered markets, open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts has taken a big hit since the start of the year.
Open interest reached a 2025 peak of $69 billion on January 21, but has since dropped by 30% to $48 billion, according to Coinglass data. Derivatives traders use futures contracts to bet on future price movements. That cuts both ways. When uncertainty lingers, open interest starts to dry up.
