Bitcoin continues to set new records this year as traders begin eyeing a six-figure price for the world’s largest crypto—and according to analysis of the asset’s derivatives market, it's yet to overheat.
The asset climbed to well beyond $97,000 late Wednesday evening, blasting through its previous highs above $95,000 in less than an hour, CoinGecko data shows.
Its seesawing price has triggered a $100 million cascade of liquidations over the last 24 hours, with 80% of those coming from short sellers or those betting the price would head lower, according to data from CoinGlass.
Volatility has returned significantly this year, thanks partly to multiple spot exchange-traded fund listings in the U.S. in January and the commencement of options trading on those products this week.
A Republican victory during this year’s U.S. presidential election has also spurred hopes for favorable industry regulation and a relaxation of oversight from Wall Street’s top cop—the Securities and Exchange Commission—with an expected change of the guard.
Dubbed the “Trump Trade,” crypto and equities traders are scrambling to scoop up assets ahead of the President-elect’s inauguration on January 20, which has helped drive sentiment across major markets.
Earlier this month, the Nasdaq climbed to its highest peak above 21,180 points, while the S&P 500 topped out over 6,000 for the first time.
That’s been driven by post-election optimism, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and strong corporate earnings, particularly in the tech sector. Advancements in AI and supportive economic conditions further boosted investor sentiment, propelling the indices to new peaks.
Bitcoin is on track to exceed analyst expectations of a December price above $100,000, with Bernstein Research forecasting the asset could double to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
“If you just looked at the scale and speed of the market, the knee-jerk thinking would be that investors are in a state of euphoria,” Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Australian crypto exchange Swyftx, told Decrypt.
“There’s zero sign of any overheating in the futures market, he added. “It all looks very rational, very deliberate.”
The analyst pointed to Bitcoin’s funding rate for perpetuals contracts, which “right now are sitting at around 10%.”
“That’s not close to overheated, and certainly nothing like the 107% annualized interest rate we saw on Bitcoin longs in March,” he said. “We should get a pretty good idea in the next few hours on whether this is the final push to $100,000.”