Trump and Harris Odds in Nevada Flip Flop as Election Day Data Jolts Prediction Markets

Kamala Harris briefly took the lead on blockchain-based prediction markets on Nevada's presidential election results Tuesday, as traders reacted to fresh data on voter turnout in the swing state's most populous county.

The Democratic presidential candidate had amassed 55% of betting volume on crypto-focused prediction market Polymarket as of 11:50 a.m. ET, the data shows. The odds briefly flipped in Harris’ favor shortly after early Election Day voting data on Tuesday showed that Republican and Democrat voter turnout was nearly equal in Clark County, Nevada.

Trump later retook a slight lead over his political adversary, which he still holds with 56% of betting volume as of writing time.

Election Day Surge Drives Polymarket to New Volume, Open Interest Records

With U.S. voters hitting the polls Tuesday, a flurry of bets in the twilight of the 2024 race pushed Polymarket’s total open interest to a record-breaking $463 million on Election Day. Representing the total value of positions held on the blockchain-based prediction platform, the measure had jumped 40% over the past week from $329 million, according to a Dune dashboard. Meanwhile, much of the platform’s activity had centered on America’s imminent choice between former President Donald Trump or V...

Over at Kalshi, another prediction markets platform, Harris briefly took the lead in Nevada around 10am PST, jumping up to a 52.5% chance of winning. However, Trump has taken over again at 53% compared to Harris at 47%.

The data, which was circulated on Twitter (aka X), shows that registered Democrats accounted for 31.5% of voters at local polls, while registered Republicans made up 29.9% of those who showed up to cast ballots, as of 9am PST. Meanwhile, other voters made up 38.5% of those who flocked to Clark County's polls.

The latest data as of 11:10am PST shows Democrats on top still with approximately 31.5% of Election Day voting in the county. Republicans had a commanding lead in the county in 2022 as of that time, with the early 2024 data apparently spooking bettors who figured the GOP would again handily carry Clark.

Clark County is the most populous of Nevada's counties, with 2.3 million residents and 70 percent of the state's population. As such, the county has the most sway over who will clinch Nevada's six electoral votes.

Where Prediction Markets Draw the Line on a Trump or Harris Election Win

As the U.S. presidential election barrels toward an inflection point, millions of dollars in bets on the White House’s winner will soon be settled through the ballot box—in theory, at least. For months, the growing popularity of prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi has positioned Election Day as a high-stakes betting spectacle. And their rise has inspired similar offerings from firms like Robinhood, enabling traders to wager on the next commander-in-chief. However, determining an elec...

The winner of the U.S. Presidential Election must accumulate 270 electoral votes. The Associated Press, which calls U.S. elections, has not yet tabulated voter data in Nevada. Polls in the state close at 7pm PST, according to the AP.

Members of the public have been watching prediction market activity for months to predict who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Proponents of prediction markets say that they are more accurate gauges of the outcomes of future events than traditional polls, while detractors argue that the markets suffer from a conservative bias.

Edited by Andrew Hayward