A new report from Bernstein Research highlights the growing prominence of cryptocurrency in the 2024 U.S. presidential election—and concludes that Kamala Harris’s olive branch could be arriving “a tad late.”
According to the report, the Kamala Harris campaign is seeking to reset relations with crypto companies, having reached out to prominent firms in the sector. Any reset would follow a years-long history of regulatory actions against the crypto industry under the current administration.
Bernstein cites Democratic communications revealing that "20% of voters in key battleground states identified crypto as a major issue in the 2024 elections."
The report also notes that "crypto holders exceed 50 [million] in the U.S now, material enough to impact elections in a close fight."
However, Bernstein analysts believe this outreach may be "a tad late," stating that "the industry would seek more concrete action (reversal of previous wrongs) before warming up to the Democrat campaign."
The report also highlights the growing influence of crypto-focused political action committees. It notes that Fairshake, a crypto Super PAC backed by Coinbase, Ripple, and others, has raised more than $200 million to support crypto-friendly candidates.
In terms of market impact, Bernstein suggests that "the crypto markets will trade completely top-down on political developments until the election results in early November."
Regardless of whether voters choose Donald Trump or presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, Bernstein said it believes crypto markets will trade "completely top down on political developments until the election results in early November."
The analysts added that any ‘Trump trade" into U.S election should include greater allocation to Bitcoin and Bitcoin linked stocks, as Bitcoin miners, in particular, are well positioned because their revenues are linked directly to Bitcoin prices. What's more, Trump has signaled clear support for Bitcoin mining as an industry, Bernstein continues to expect leading U.S miners to consolidate global market share.
“We expect top 5 Bitcoin miners to be 25% of Bitcoin’s global network hashrate by 2025,” the report states.
Bernstein rated Riot Platforms (RIOT), CleanSpark (CLSK), Iris Energy (IREN) and Core Scientific (CORZ) as Outperform. The analysts said they also rate Microstrategy (MSTR), which owns 1.1% of world’s Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset, as Outperform.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.