Bitcoin didn’t budge after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would leave interest rates unchanged—a widely expected move from investors.
Answering questions from reporters, central bank chief Jerome Powell did not reveal much about a future cut, saying that although “inflation has eased substantially,” if by September “inflation were to prove sticky” a cut would be less likely.
“‘Certainty’ is not a word we have in our business,” he said.
But investors are expecting the central bank to cut rates in September following a Wednesday statement from the rate-setting committee of the Fed, which said that the U.S. economy was “expanding at a solid pace.”
But it added: “The committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”
Investors are now expecting the central bank to cut rates in September.
“Although they did not cut rates today, Fed officials seem anxious to get started,” Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, told Decrypt. “Powell laid the groundwork for a cut in September, which is likely to be the first of several moves.”
“Lower real interest rates should tend to weigh on the value of the dollar and therefore support the price of Bitcoin,” he continued, noting that his firm believes that “current macro trends are increasingly favorable for Bitcoin and the crypto asset class.”
Looking at recent trends in equities, the Japanese yen, and gold, he was optimistic about the top cryptocurrency.
“Bigger picture, the combination of Fed rate cuts, bipartisan focus on crypto policy issues, and the prospect of a second Trump Administration may advocate for a weaker dollar [and] should be considered very positive for Bitcoin."
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of nearly $74,000 in March but has since then dipped and dived and largely remained below its 2021 record of $69,044.
A big part of the reason is investors looking to avoid “risk assets”—investments that experience volatile price action, like tech stocks and crypto—due to high interest rates.
The Fed started aggressively raising rates in 2022 in a bid to tame 40-year high inflation following the Covid-19 pandemic.
Both stocks and crypto were negatively hit by the tightening as investors tend to avoid such assets when borrowing is expensive.
But this year and last, both investments have experienced big gains. David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, told Decrypt that an incoming rate cut could lead to more capital into crypto space.
“As a risk-on asset class, crypto should benefit from increased liquidity and could react positively to further confirmation of an upcoming rate cut cycle,” he said.
Bitcoin investors have their eyes on what central banks around the world—not just in the U.S.—will do with monetary policy. Japan’s central bank today raised interest rates for the second time since 2007.
OTC Trader at Wintermute Jake Ostrovskis told Decrypt that if the Fed does indeed move to cut interest rates in September, he expects “risk assets such as cryptocurrency to outperform into the year end.”
André Beganski contributed to this report. Edited by Ryan Ozawa.