- The Bitcoin halving is just hours away.
- Some people think that Bitcoin's price will rise as a result; others think it'll fall.
- Of course, nobody can predict the future.
Bitcoin’s halving is just hours away. When the 630,000th block is mined, the amount of Bitcoin that miners receive per block will be cut in half. So the theory goes, this will constrict the supply of new Bitcoin, which some speculators think will increase the price of Bitcoin.
But speculation is better left to the mystics; nobody, not even the finest minds of crypto’s Twitter culture or traders practicing the dark and dubious art of technical analysis, can predict the future.
Still, plenty have tried. Some have tried to discredit the Bitcoin halving, claiming that any price buff has already been priced in months ago or that its price will instead be determined by the face of the stock market, which is currently at the mercy of the coronavirus pandemic. Others think that Bitcoin’s price will rocket to the moon—perhaps trying to buy the hype and sell the news.
Here are the seven wildest predictions ahead of today’s halving.
Alex Kruger: between $400,000 and $10 million
Alex Kruger, a colorful crypto Twitter personality with 52,000 followers, is the founder of Aike Capital, a financial advisory and asset management company. Three days ago, he tweeted that in the next 5 years, “Bitcoin will be between $10 million and $400,000” after it pushed past $9,000 the other day (a price it’s since fallen below).
Back in January, he said he thinks that the halving has not been “priced in,” since nobody knows how mining behavior will change after the halving.
Kruger’s wild prediction is an about-turn on his previous ones. Just a few months ago, he determined that any predictions that Bitcoin would one day hit $5 million were “flawed.” Perhaps he was onto something there.
John McAfee - $1 million or he eats his own penis
Cybersecurity pioneer, former US Presidential Candidate and trigger-happy yoga enthusiast, John McAfee, is one of the more outspoken crypto bulls.
He previously predicted that Bitcoin would hit $500,000 by the end of 2017. He was wrong, so he doubled down on his predictions in 2017, when he predicted that Bitcoin would hit $1 million by 2020—promising to “eat his own dick” if he was wrong.
He has since stuck by this prediction. He emphasizes the scarcity of Bitcoin, made apparent by the halving, which will curb the supply of new Bitcoin. Although he did say that he won’t dismember himself, putting this down as a rouse to attract new people to Bitcoin.
If the halving won’t pump Bitcoin, then the demise of the Western world surely will. At a virtual blockchain conference at the start of the month, McAfee claimed that the coronavirus pandemic was a government plot and advised people to “go buy guns” to prepare for food scarcity. He also predicted the collapse of the US dollar.
Peter Schiff: Bitcoin goes to zero
Bitcoin critic and gold bug Peter Schiff has said that Bitcoin is doomed. Upon news of the recent oil price crash, Schiff shot down claims that Bitcoin would skyrocket.
“These currencies are going to trade to zero or pretty close to it when the bubble pops. Right now, the only reason why people are buying bitcoin is because the price is going up. When it turns around, they are not going to sell it for the same reason,” Schiff told Russia Today.
"There is no value in bitcoin, you can’t use it as money," Schiff said, adding: "It’s too slow, too expensive and too vulnerable.” Nor does he think any of its spin-offs hold any worth. “There is no limit to supply of bitcoin-branded worthless tokens that can be created,” he said.
Raoul Pal - Between $40,000 and $1 million
Former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Raoul Pal has also said that Bitcoin will soar in price to $1 million following the halving.
He used various technical analysis indicators to first predict a $40,000 pricing, before using a different method to come up with a valuation of $1 million. Pal also thinks that the “HUGE quantitative easing” carried out by governments worldwide will benefit Bitcoin, which is inherently scarce.
BayernLB - $90,000
Large financial institutions are also placing their bets. Last September, the state-owned German bank BayernLB published a report predicting that Bitcoin’s price could rise as high as $90,000 during 2020. Its rationale was that the halving effect had not been priced in. The price now is around $9,000, which is similar to the price when the report was published (about $8,900).
Simon Peters: as low as $7,000
Simon Peters is a market analyst at social trading firm eToro. He has taken a more bearish view on the future price of Bitcoin. Last week, he told Decrypt that, post-halving, the price could actually fall.
Traders who bought Bitcoin during the March dip could liquidate their position to net quick profits, he said. He gave a “70% chance we’ll see a quick retracement/sell-off just after the halving. [We] may see $7k-$8k being tested before pushing higher,” he said.
Peters added that due to the involvement of “more sophisticated participants,” the price will not run up quite as much as many people are expecting.
Anthony Pompliano - $100,000 by 2021
Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, a crypto investment fund, believes that Bitcoin will climb to $100,000 by the end of 2021 due to its “fixed supply” coupled with “increasing demand.”
His prediction came after Bitcoin broke past $10,000 in February. He repeated this claim after Bitcoin started to bounce back from the price crash in April, when he claimed that a combination of “macro-economics” and the halving will drive the price of Bitcoin up considerably.
Similar to Pal, Pompliano has stated that quantitative easing will considerably lower the value of traditional fiat currencies, whereas the limited supply of Bitcoin will drive its price up by remaining at a fairly constant supply. He has also said that Bitcoin will become a staple investment on Wall Street.
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.