Bitcoin was up 20% early today, reaching $9,400 at its peak. If you were still asleep you would have missed it. This is the first time in two months that it’s cleared $8,000, ahead of a key halving in the crypto market.
Within a few hours the price fell back down to $8,600. “Bitcoin was the same price when I woke up as when I went to sleep, but somewhere in between people started losing their minds. I didn’t even know it went to $9400,” said popular trader Scott Melker.
Bitcoin was the same price when I woke up as when I went to sleep, but somewhere in between people started losing their minds. I didn’t even know it went to $9400.
The rally also saw popular San Francisco-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase suffer outages. The last time Coinbase crashed, under such huge trading volumes, we saw Bitcoin's biggest bull run.
The Bitcoin halving is imminent
While the rally didn’t last, crypto insiders told Decrypt that it’s an indication of renewed interest in Bitcoin, and a clear precursor of an exciting two weeks ahead, as we approach a seminal event in Bitcoin history.
“People are preparing for the halving event and trying to scoop some sweet BTC before supply halves,” Pedro Febrero, an analyst at Quantum Economics, told Decrypt.
— Bitcoin Halving Countdown (@Bitcoin_Halving) April 30, 2020
The next Bitcoin Halving event on May 12, will slash the cryptocurrency’s mining reward by half—from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Traders anticipate that the new scarcity could make Bitcoin more valuable. But unless Bitcoin’s price makes it profitable to mine, miners risk going out of business and could flood the market with their mined Bitcoin to cover their costs.
Like many, Joe DiPasquale, CEO of investment fund BitBull Capital considers the halving a hugely positive event, from the historical effect of previous halvings, and believes that market sentiment leading up to it reflects that.
“In the long term, reward halving is a bullish development, especially as fiat currencies around the world are experiencing inflation, and Bitcoin’s supply reduction results in deflation,” he said.
It's been over 11 years since Bitcoin's genesis block was mined by Satoshi Nakamoto. In that time, the network has expanded and thousands of new miners have entered the fray. But it all started with just a handful of libertarians and tech enthusiasts.
These pioneers are now legends in the industry. Some command crypto events with thousands in attendance, others have legions of diehard fans on social media that listen to their every blog post or podcast. Now they’re taking a look back at where i...
George McDonaugh, cofounder of blockchain investment firm KR1 plc, agreed. “Narratives in the world of blockchain act like the Force in Star Wars, they mysteriously move and shape the market and in terms of the halving, the Force is strong with this one,” he concluded.
But this time round, unlike previous halvings, investors have the ability to short Bitcoin on new institutional grade exchanges that have far greater liquidity available than ever before, said McDonaugh. “This could provide a counterbalance to the frothy heights of a bull run getting carried away with itself and potentially reduce the possible peaks.”
The power of FOMO
And there were some who warned that today’s early rally was illiquid, overextended and—in its later stages—driven by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
One prominent trader called the upside run an “organized FOMO rally,” with whales persuading smaller traders to enter the market using the “halving” narrative.
But Binance co-founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao was more upbeat. Celebrating the exchange’s 24-hour trading volume reaching a new all-time high ($16 billion), he tweeted that the crypto market was in "FOMO mode now."
Damn son, $15.9 BILLION a couple hours later.
Still going strong. FOMO mode now. Took a while, lol.
This kind of FOMO could well drive crypto and traditional markets much higher in the coming weeks, argues Nigel Green, founder and chief executive of independent financial advisory deVere.
“With a recovery on its way, they don’t want to miss out on the current value in the market long-term, which has the effect of driving markets higher,” he said. “We’re witnessing what is likely to become a powerful recovery in global stock markets as investors look ahead to the latter half of 2020 and into 2021.”
Will Bitcoin reach $10,000 before the halving?
Green believes Bitcoin will reach at least $10,000 before the May event. “The excitement of the forthcoming rare halving event, together with the new era we’re in, will drive the price of Bitcoin exponentially and sustainably,” he said. “Beyond that, we could see an explosion in the price of Bitcoin due to real-world issues it addresses and increasing adoption.”
A new report by CryptoCompare explains that the conditions of next month’s Bitcoin halving are completely different to the previous two Bitcoin halvings, which took place in 2016 and 2012.
Spoiler alert: Don’t expect Bitcoin’s price to suddenly rise post-halving, advises the cryptocurrency market analysis firm.
The price of Bitcoin is skyrocketing. Here's why
Sometime in the middle of next month, the supply of Bitcoins issued as mining rewards will cut in half. The event, called the “halving”...
Simon Peters, an analyst at global investment platform eToro, agreed. "Miner first spend has been decreasing this week suggesting that overall, miners are choosing to hold. The number of actual participants in the market is also hitting new highs amid the expectation that this halving event will play out like the last one and push the price up sharply. With these tailwinds in place, we think it is likely the price will go above $10,000 before the halving actually takes place,” he said.
But well-known gold bug and Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, was not so impressed. “Bitcoin is being bid up by speculators, just like other risk assets today,” he tweeted.
Bitcoin is being bid up by speculators, just like other risk assets today. #Bitcoin and #gold have nothing in common, so there is nothing confusing about today's price movements.
And there were more measured voices, including Matthew Graham, CEO of investment firm Sino Global Capital. He said that while he continued to view the halving as a “moderately bullish event,” it wasn’t to the same extent as previous halvings. “Short-term movements are much more difficult to forecast, and even in a bull move scenario we can expect violent shakeouts along the way. Traders should be especially wary of low volume price movements,” he advised.
And while today’s rally fizzled out, longer term data from data analytics startup Skew showed that Bitcoin provided investors 27% rewards since January 1, more than double that of gold and much better than stocks and oil.
Yet Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz argued both Bitcoin and gold are the ones to look for. He had just two pieces of advice: “Buy Gold. Buy BTC,” he tweeted.
Overall, this growth has seen Bitcoin recover all of the value lost as a result of the crash in the first half of March. The cryptocurrency is now up more than 22% for the year, making it one of the best performing financial instruments in 2020.
Not too shabby.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
Daily Debrief Newsletter
Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Bitcoin Halving
A collection of stories exploring the halving of the Bitcoin mining reward and the implications for the wider community.
The first satoshi mined on the Bitcoin blockchain after last week’s halving event, mined by Bitcoin mining pool ViaBTC, went up for auction—and fetched a sizable seven-figure sum.
The auction of “epic sat” 1,968,750,000,000,000, hosted on the cryptocurrency exchange CoinEX, ended Thursday with a final bid of 33.3 Bitcoin ($2.13 million worth) winning the piece of Bitcoin history. It's not yet clear who won the auction.
The auction of the Epic Sat began on April 20, the day after the halving, wit...
It's been roughly four days since Bitcoin (BTC)’s fourth halving event occurred, and market watchers have amassed enough data to give an early verdict on its effects.
For one, Bitcoin’s supply inflation rate has collapsed, as expected. Each Bitcoin block—mined roughly once every ten minutes—now produces just 3.125 new BTC, half of its former 6.25 BTC block subsidy.
Before the halving, 900 BTC was generated daily, fueling a 1.7% inflation rate. The new figures are roughly equivalent to 450 BTC pe...
Earn a free on-chain NFT by taking our course, "Bitcoin Halving 101: What it Means for Miners and Investors."
Every four years, the amount of Bitcoin doled out to cryptocurrency miners halves in a process imaginatively known as the Bitcoin halving (or halvening, though the term has fallen out of favor in recent years). Here’s why—and how—it works.
Bitcoin’s supply limit
To understand the Bitcoin halving, we must first understand the theory behind its supply.
The inventor of Bitcoin, Satoshi Naka...