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Bitcoin and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 have hit their lowest correlation in three years, indicating a possible decoupling is in the works, according to a new report from Kaiko Research. Simultaneously, the cryptocurrency and gold hit the highest correlation in several years last week, with both assets rallying in 2023.
Kaiko, a financial markets data provider, reported that the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 collapsed to just 3%. The Nasdaq tracks the performance of the largest and most actively-traded non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
Meanwhile, the index's correlation with traditional risk assets has steadily weakened this year from an average of 60% in 2022. According to analysts, however, the Nasdaq 100 has technically entered a bull market, up more than 20% since its December 2022 lows.
Dessislava Ianeva, research analyst at Kaiko, told Decrypt, “The main reason for the declining correlation is that Bitcoin has been largely impacted by crypto-specific events,” like the recent regulatory environment. She said this has not impacted tech equities to the same extent.
“A lot of de-risking has already taken place last year with many institutional investors exiting the market,” Ianeva added, noting that this “means that these investors are not likely to sell both crypto and tech equities simultaneously.”
Researchers at the data information company observed on Monday that the gap in volatility between crypto and tech stocks had reached its highest level since the FTX collapse.
Meanwhile, according to another Kaiko report, Bitcoin and gold have behaved in a similar fashion, with their correlation surging past 50%. Although the precious metal has seen a red month, it is up year-to-date, touching its $2,000 all-time high in May, according to Yahoo Finance. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency has been enjoying a BlackRocky rally, surpassing $31,000 last week.
The data research platform reasoned that on-chain data showcases an increase in long-term BTC holders, indicating “digital gold” might be joining its physical counterpart as an instrument that protects investors in times of uncertainty.
These numbers come despite the recent regulatory crackdown that has put the entire cryptocurrency industry on high alert.
Whether Bitcoin is a “digital safe haven” is a point of contention among industry experts. Given gold has been the historic refuge for investors in times of risk, the increase in price for both assets following the banking turmoil might spark the debate again—especially if the cryptocurrency continues to decouple from tech stocks.