While the US election has been too close to call, sentiment among Bitcoin investors has been bullish as the cryptocurrency briefly passed the $14,000 mark.
While the price has slipped back to below $14,000, looking at volatility over the past 12 hours, it appears Bitcoin is reacting to news coming out of the US elections as states declare who they’re giving their votes to.
At the time of writing, it’s neck and neck with Biden marginally in the lead with several states still left to declare. But Trump is still in with a chance.
Pollsters get it wrong again
The US election has been a lot closer than mainstream pollsters have predicted. While the likes of the Economist and other mainstream polls said Trump had no chance, crypto markets like Polymarket and Augur had Trump within touching distance of a win.
According to The Economist’s election forecasting model, President Trump has just a 4% chance of being re-elected. But on the Ethereum-based prediction platform Polymarket, it’ll cost you $0.38 to bet on him (equating to a 38% probability) versus $0.62 for Joe Biden.
What gives?
Betting markets—decentralized or otherwise—have consistently given Donald Trump better odds than polls, let alone forecasting models that also take into account the economic, historical, and demographic context of the 20...
Crypto pundits have weighed in on why that is, most notably Vitalik Buterin. He provided a series of reasons why prediction markets seemed to have a better handle on Trump’s chances, without committing to one over another.
There's a big difference between statistical models and prediction markets this US election; and it's a puzzle why this is happening.
Naturally, this set tongues wagging. Paul Graham, the co-founder of Y-Combinator put it down to "clueless and/or partisan bettors" rather than a way for “secrets to escape”.
We talked about this earlier, and I believe @NateSilver538 said that it was because the market odds are set by clueless and/or partisan bettors. I.e. it's the opposite of Poindexter's reason for favoring prediction markets: that they allow secrets to escape.
Others have said that because of the size of prediction markets being fairly small, they are more susceptible to market manipulation, meaning people are changing the odds to help create a better pay day.
When people analyze prediction markets, they forget they are only SLIGHTLY less prone to manipulation than statistical models. I hope we will get liquid enough markets by the next election that this will be less of an issue, but as of today, it is not. For better data, look here: pic.twitter.com/dOJW5kvH0t
Either way, crypto markets have ticked up over the last 24 hours, recovering some of the $15 billion that was lost on Tuesday. None of the top 20 crypto projects by market cap has moved more than 2% in 24 hours, but as discussed earlier, election driven volatility might not be reflected in the 24-hour timeline.
Wall Street looks to Senate for clarity
Over on Wall Street, stock markets were closed, but Futures Markets were heading south late into trading on Tuesday. The S&P Futures is down 1.19%, the Dow 1.65% but the tech-centric Nasdaq surged 3.9% late last night triggering a circuit breaker.
Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.5% within an hour, setting off a trading pause for two minutes to allow investigators to understand what was causing the volatility.
As European markets opened, stocks slid as Trump prematurely claimed he had won the US election despite millions of votes remaining uncounted in a tight race. At the time of writing, America is still days away from being able to count all the votes, as states are trying to wade through more than 100 million postal votes that were submitted ahead of polling day.
As noted yesterday, markets are looking to Senate seats to see how power will be divided after all the votes are counted.
Crypto is not happy. The last 24 hours saw a brutal red sweep across the global markets as nearly all projects suffered sustained losses.
Ethereum dropped 5.67%, XRP 4%, Bitcoin Cash 9.16%, and Chainlink an eye-watering 11.20% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin wasn’t immune, losing 1.85% of its value in the last 24 hours. That’s a second straight day of declining prices for Bitcoin after it hit a two-year high over the weekend.
Some $15 billion has been wiped from the market cap of all projects,...
Thus far, the Republicans appear to have retained the Senate with only one seat swinging to the Democrats. If Trump gets in, he’ll have carte blanche to pass whatever policy he wants. If Biden gets in, Democrat promises of big-spending will be almost definitely blocked at the Senate level.
The one thing we do know for sure is there's still all to play for.
Mastercard will tap Fiserv’s FIUSD stablecoin for its existing products and services, soon allowing more than 150 million merchants to use the dollar-pegged token, the payments giant said in a press release on Tuesday.
“This work with Fiserv is setting the stage for a new era, where stablecoins are as ubiquitous and trusted as fiat currencies,” Mastercard Americas Co-President Chiro Aikat said in a statement. “We are creating a robust ecosystem.”
Through a partnership, Mastercard and Fiserv wil...
Embattled crypto exchange WazirX received a lifeline Tuesday when a Singapore court granted the company's request to present additional arguments for its restructuring plan, extending a crucial moratorium that keeps its recovery efforts alive.
The Singapore High Court's decision comes after it initially declined to approve WazirX's proposed restructuring plan in early June. The move dealt a significant blow to the India-serving exchange, which has been struggling to resume operations following a...
ECD Automotive Design, Inc. has secured $500 million to acquire and store massive amounts of Bitcoin in a corporate treasury, according to the firm’s statement on Monday—a business strategy that has gained traction among a number of public companies over the past few months.
The Florida-based car restoration company, which bills itself as the largest restorator of Land Rovers and Jaguars, signed a $500 million equity facility with ECDA Bitcoin Treasury LLC, according to its press release.
An...
