Decrypt’s Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub.
Pollsters get it wrong again
There's a big difference between statistical models and prediction markets this US election; and it's a puzzle why this is happening.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) November 3, 2020
We talked about this earlier, and I believe @NateSilver538 said that it was because the market odds are set by clueless and/or partisan bettors. I.e. it's the opposite of Poindexter's reason for favoring prediction markets: that they allow secrets to escape.
— Paul Graham (@paulg) November 3, 2020
When people analyze prediction markets, they forget they are only SLIGHTLY less prone to manipulation than statistical models. I hope we will get liquid enough markets by the next election that this will be less of an issue, but as of today, it is not. For better data, look here: pic.twitter.com/dOJW5kvH0t
— Stefan Patatu (@futzco) November 3, 2020