France's National Gaming Authority is reportedly planning to block Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market platform that saw $3.5 billion in trading volume during the U.S. presidential election.
The regulator is "currently examining [Polymarket's] operation as well as its compliance with French gambling legislation," according to a report from French news outlet The Big Whale.
Decrypt has reached out to Polymarket and the regulator for comment.
Mystery Prediction Market Whale Made $47 Million Betting on Trump
As Donald Trump prevailed at the ballot box Tuesday, so did several Polymarket users, who backed the former President’s White House bid to the tune of millions of dollars. Representing the blockchain-based prediction platform’s largest market by volume and open interest, Polymarket’s U.S. presidential election contest concluded Wednesday. Overall, the contest registered $3.6 billion in total trading volume before it resolved in Trump’s favor. With Trump projected to win the country’s popular vot...
Regulatory scrutiny emerged after a French trader known as Theo placed multimillion-dollar bets on Donald Trump's victory, ultimately earning a $47 million payout when the former president secured a second term, the report reads.
A prior report from Reuters two weeks before election day first identified Théo.
Prospects of the ban are grounded on the regulator’s authority to restrict access and block domain names. Pressure towards media outlets that link to the platform can also be applied, the report claims.
According to Reuters, Polymarket claimed to have contacted Théo, citing his extensive trading experience and a background in financial services. Polymarket said it conducted an investigation which concluded that the trader was betting based on their "personal views" on politics.
Polymarket Resolves U.S. Presidential Election Market After $3.6 Billion Volume
Donald Trump is set to become the next President of the United States. Now, crypto prediction market Polymarket—which has seen its status supercharged by political betting—has resolved its flagship market on who would win the race—after seeing over $3.6 billion worth of volume. At the time of writing, there’s roughly an hour left in the Polymarket dispute window. During this time users have the opportunity to challenge the resolution. However, this seems unlikely as the clear “resolution source”...
The massive wagers initially sparked manipulation concerns before the bettor revealed his identity to the Wall Street Journal, confirming that they placed over $30 million in bets over the U.S. elections.
While ANJ can implement technical restrictions, users may still access the platform through VPNs since Polymarket only requires a crypto wallet rather than identity verification. The regulator has not announced a timeline for the potential ban.
Polymarket has faced mounting regulatory pressure globally, with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission probing the platform as early as 2021. The commission later proposed rules targeting prediction markets in a bid to counter manipulation risks.
Despite this, prediction markets continue to attract billions of dollars in bets, with concerns over the effects of insider trading. Polymarket raised $74 million from early investors, including Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, though it remains inaccessible to US users.
Election Day Surge Drives Polymarket to New Volume, Open Interest Records
With U.S. voters hitting the polls Tuesday, a flurry of bets in the twilight of the 2024 race pushed Polymarket’s total open interest to a record-breaking $463 million on Election Day. Representing the total value of positions held on the blockchain-based prediction platform, the measure had jumped 40% over the past week from $329 million, according to a Dune dashboard. Meanwhile, much of the platform’s activity had centered on America’s imminent choice between former President Donald Trump or V...
The platform processed over $294 million in trading volume on November 5 alone as users wagered on election outcomes. Unlike traditional betting sites, Polymarket operates on blockchain technology, allowing users to place crypto bets without intermediaries.
The company currently maintains control over betting proposals, though this could change if the project decentralizes through a token launch.
Despite skepticism about its predictive value, Polymarket correctly signaled both Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and Trump's victory weeks before the events occurred.
Edited by Sebastian Sinclair
