Late Bets Push Crypto Prediction Markets Further Toward Biden

Yesterday evening, November 2, Ethereum-based prediction market Polymarket had just surpassed $3 million in trading volume for its presidential election market. In the last day, that figure has risen above $4 million—and Biden’s predicted support has risen with it—as Eastern states began reporting voting results and bystanders look to get in on the action.

As of 7:oo p.m. Eastern, a Trump win is selling for $0.33 on Polymarket, while a Biden victory goes for $0.67. That’s the largest lead for Biden since the market opened on October 9. Just last evening, the split was $0.62 to $0.38 in favor of Biden.

The same was true for crypto exchange FTX’s TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE tokens. The future contracts for a Trump win dropped sharply today—to under $0.30.

Catnip, built on decentralized prediction platform Augur, reported a fifth-straight day of record volume for the fledgling exchange’s election market, posting $1.2 million in today’s trading. The price for a Trump vote there is $0.36—a drop from yesterday evening’s $0.41.

It could be that crypto-based prediction markets are belatedly catching up to national and battleground state polls, which heavily favor Joe Biden.

But it’s not just crypto-based markets—decentralized or otherwise. Sportsbook odds for a Biden win shortened today as well, meaning betting firms now find a Biden win even likelier than they did a day ago.

With the election winner not expected to be known on Election Day, there's still plenty of time for the odds to shift—all the way to one side or the other.