Poloniex's Trump Tokens Predict Biden Victory

Crypto exchange Poloniex has listed two ERC20 tokens called TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE. The tokens will be redeemable on FTX for either 1 or 0 USD, based on the outcome of the US Presidential election—meaning that they hold up a mirror to users' beliefs about the likelihood of a second Trump term or a Biden victory.

According to the Poloniex website, both tokens act as “tradeable prediction markets where the market price of TRUMPWIN should be roughly equal to the probability that Trump will win the election and the market price of TRUMPLOSE should be roughly equal to 1 minus that probability.”

At the time of writing, the TRUMPWIN token is valued at US$0.36, and the TRUMPLOSE token is valued at US$0.59, indicating that users are bullish on a Joe Biden presidency. 

Both tokens are issued by FTX, and pose little prima facie risk to users, as each token will expire to $1 or $0 after the election. Moreover, both tokens are based on the President 2020 Futures Contracts on FTX.  

The Innovation Zone

Both Trump tokens are recent entrants into Poloniex’s Innovation Zone, which is a trading section that allows customers to discover innovative assets. 

“We are always striving to bring our customers new and innovative assets to trade and are excited to be able to showcase some of them in this section,” the Poloniex team said on its website. 

The Innovation Zone also plays host to the exchange’s decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens. According to the website,  “with all of our recent DeFi listings, we wanted to allow customers to easily see which assets we have available within our DeFi filter.” 

At the time of writing, the TRUMPWIN and TRUMPLOSE tokens represent the exchange’s newest listings.