US–Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15?

Market Dates:

• Market Period: From publication date through May 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM EDT.
• Market Close: May 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM EDT.
• Resolution Time: May 16, 2026, or earlier if an outcome is determined.

Resolution Criteria:

• This market resolves to “Yes” if a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran occurs during the Market Period.
• Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”

Resolution Details:

What qualifies as a diplomatic meeting:

• A deliberate meeting between representatives of both countries acting in an official capacity.
• The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person formats involving intermediaries).
• Participants must be authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their governments.
• Indirect in-person meetings (e.g., via mediators, facilitators, or intermediaries acting with the knowledge and authorization of both governments) qualify, as long as they are part of a coordinated diplomatic effort.

What does NOT qualify:

• Brief greetings, chance encounters, or informal interactions not intended for diplomacy.
• Meetings not explicitly aimed at negotiation or diplomatic engagement.
• Remote interactions, including phone calls, video conferences, or written exchanges.
• Any interaction where the relevant representatives are not physically present.

Resolution Sources

Resolution will rely on official confirmation from the US government, the Iranian government, or reporting from major international news organizations such as:

• Reuters
• Associated Press
• BBC
• Al Jazeera English

A single reliable confirmation from one of these sources is enough for resolution, as long as it isn’t immediately contradicted by others prior to market resolution.

Cancellation Conditions

• No reliable or verifiable information is available to determine whether a qualifying meeting occurred.
• Conflicting reports prevent a clear resolution outcome.
• Any unforeseen circumstance prevents confirmation of the event within the Market Period.

If canceled, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation.