How Bitcoin Traders Are Playing the US Election

By André Beganski

If you’re fixated on the price of Bitcoin, then you may already have your answer.

On Election Day, America’s choice between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris carries consequences for the crypto industry—from a potential shakeup at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the passage of a regulatory framework.

It could take days to determine Tuesday’s White House winner, but analysts told Decrypt that there are several tea leaves that traders could read into in the meantime, ranging from Senate races to the resiliency of Bitcoin’s price in the face of normally bearish news.

While Bernstein analysts forecast that Bitcoin could pop to $90,000 on a Trump victory earlier this week, Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives Greg Magadini told Decrypt that the Bitcoin futures “market is pretty convinced a Trump victory brings us past $80,000” by the end of the month.

Bitcoin is currently trading for about $69,150 as of this writing, up more than 3% on the day—though it's dipped from a daily high above $70,500 on Tuesday morning.

The implied volatility of Bitcoin futures contracts, measuring how much the market expects the asset’s price to change, is quite elevated at above 80%, Magadini added. The last two times the metric pushed as high was when spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January and amid last year’s banking crisis, suggesting Bitcoin’s price could swing forcefully in either direction, he said.

Though Trump has turned himself into a vocal supporter of digital assets on the campaign trail, Grayscale’s Managing Director of Research Zach Pandl told Decrypt that Senate races are ultimately the most important barometer for the future outlook of the crypto industry.

Because the Senate has the authority to approve presidential appointees at agencies like the SEC, Harris’ camp would likely collaborate with Republicans if they’re able to gain control, Pandl said. At the same time, the Senate's makeup could determine how the regulatory backdrop surrounding decentralized finance and the tokenization of assets develops, he said.

“As long as we see Republican control of the Senate, we think that we will have a balanced mix of financial service regulators in the United States that would put the whole industry on solid footing for the coming years,” Pandl said. “In my personal opinion, there's actually more election risk for Ethereum and other coins beyond Bitcoin.”

The sentiment was echoed by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who highlighted Solana’s 3.8% rise Tuesday to $165 as evidence of traders positioning around the election’s regulatory implications.

“I think Solana is the asset to keep an eye on,” he said. “Of the major assets, it’s probably the most exposed to the difference in regulatory uncertainty between a Harris and Trump regime.”

Alongside Bitcoin’s rise Tuesday, GSR Head of Research Brian Ruddick told Decrypt that some traders may be trying to allocate to the asset early based on Trump’s White House prospects.

Given that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $500 million in net outflows Monday, he said the move would typically hurt Bitcoin’s price. Meanwhile, the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox moved $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin to a new wallet late Monday, a move that has historically caused some market volatility.

“Prices are higher despite some negative news over the last day,” Ruddick said. “It seems like traders are trying to front-run the election and a potential Trump win.”

Edited by Andrew Hayward

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