Guggenheim CIO Scott Minerd Is Back With Another Bitcoin Price Prediction

By Tim Hakki

Scott Minerd is betting on Bitcoin 's price again; this time, he's saying that we're not even close to the bottom. 

Minerd is a founding managing partner and CIO at Guggenheim, guiding the firm's investment strategies. Guggenheim Partners currently holds more than $323 billion in assets under management.

In an interview with CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday, the Guggenheim CIO said the current dip could bottom out at $8,000. 

"When you break below $30,000 consistently, $8,000 is the ultimate bottom, so I think we have a lot more room to the downside, especially with the Fed being restrictive," Minerd explained, referencing the U.S. central bank's 2022 interest rate hikes and tightening fiscal policies.

Minerd then called the majority of cryptocurrencies "junk," except for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which he named as potential "survivors." 

He compared the current speculative gold rush to the internet bubble and added, "I don't think we've seen the dominant player in crypto yet." 

The Guggenheim CIO also said that "we don't have the right prototype yet for crypto" since even the two market leaders don't yet meet the criteria of a currency: they don't hold value well, nor are they a widely used medium of exchange. 

Minerd’s previous predictions

This isn't the first time Minerd has speculated on the price of Bitcoin.

In an interview with Bloomberg before Christmas 2020, Minerd said, "our fundamental work shows that Bitcoin should be worth about $400,000."

At the time, Bitcoin was trading for around $20,000. 

A month later, Bitcoin had risen to around $40,000. Minerd stood by his $400,000 prediction but warned, "perhaps it's time to take some money off the table." 

He also confirmed that select Guggenheim investors had bought Bitcoin on his recommendation: "Some of our private funds have already purchased it… If you believe what I said that it'll go to $400,000 eventually, 2% of your portfolio will be 20% before this is all over."

In an interview with CNN that February, Minerd gave a new price prediction of $600,000, again based on Guggenheim's research. 

He explained that "if you consider the supply of Bitcoin relative to the supply of gold in the world, and what the total value of gold is, if Bitcoin were to go to those kinds of numbers, you'd be talking about $400,000 to $600,000 per Bitcoin." 

A few weeks later, Bitcoin fell from over $63,000 in mid-April to just over $33,500 on July 9. Minerd told CNBC the price could bottom out at $10,000.

Fortunately, for Bitcoin fans, Minerd was wrong. Still, we did hit 2020 prices earlier this month. 

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