March Madness: Will a 12 Seed Upset a 5 Seed in the first-round 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Market Dates:

Market Period: From the publication date until March 19, 2026, at 5:50 PM UTC

Market Close: March 19, 2026, at 5:50 PM UTC

Resolution Deadline: The resolution will be determined after the results are published on the resolution source.

Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves “YES” if at least one 12 seed defeats its corresponding 5 seed in any of the four matchups listed in the resolution details.
• Resolves “NO” if all four 5 seeds defeat their respective 12 seed opponents.

Resolution Details:

• The four 12 vs. 5 seed first-round matchups are:
  • East: Northern Iowa (12) vs. St. John's (5);
  • West: High Point (12) vs. Wisconsin (5);
  • South: McNeese (12) vs. Vanderbilt (5);
  • Midwest: Akron (12) vs. Texas Tech (5).
• If any game is postponed but played within the same scheduled NCAA Tournament window, the result still counts.
• If any game ends tied at the conclusion of regulation, the market will resolve based on the official result after any overtime period(s), as determined by NCAA rules.

Cancelation (Invalidity) Conditions:

• Any of the four games is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or held outside of the NCAA Tournament window.
• Any affected game is declared a no-contest or otherwise lacks an official final result.
• A team is disqualified, replaced, or reseeded in a manner that materially changes the listed matchups prior to tip-off.
• Any circumstance makes it impossible to determine the outcome definitively.
• The resolution source is suspended, becomes unreliable, or fails to provide an official outcome.

If the market is canceled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancelation.