Citi Boosts Coinbase Stock Price Target, Rates COIN a ‘Buy’

By André Beganski

As crypto-friendly candidates court voters in the U.S., Citi Research analysts say a recent Supreme Court ruling on the authority of administrative agencies only bolsters Coinbase’s prospects amid its ongoing legal fight with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

“Shifts in the U.S. election landscape and the Supreme Court’s overturning of the long-standing Chevron precedent has changed our view on Coinbase’s regulatory risks,” Citi Research analysts wrote on Tuesday, describing the upside from a favorable environment as “too large to ignore.”

At the same time, Citi Research analysts upgraded Coinbase’s stock (COIN) from “neutral” to “buy,” penciling in a price target of $345 per share. As of this writing, the price of COIN has rallied to $259, a 65% year-to-date bump that has outpaced Bitcoin’s 50% price gains over the same span.

Referring to the Supreme Court’s abolishment of “Chevron deference” last month, Citi Research analysts wrote that overturning the 40-year-old legal doctrine “offers additional footing for an improved risk/reward setup” as a crypto-friendly White House appears increasingly possible.

If former president Donald Trump wins in November, crypto advocates are hoping it results in a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto. In May, Trump called out SEC Chair Gary Gensler and Democrats’ regulatory approach to crypto, arguing that they “are very much against it.”

The Chevron deference allowed administrative agencies, such as the SEC, to have the authority to interpret certain laws left vague by Congress. However, legal experts, in the decision’s aftermath, told Decrypt that the Supreme Court’s ruling had put regulators’ “role and firepower” on notice.

Citi Research analysts wrote that the Supreme Court ruling could influence courts’ interpretation of the Howey Test as well. The SEC has leaned on the legal framework stemming from a 1946 Supreme Court case while accusing Coinbase and other exchanges of violating securities laws.

“The decision does cast doubt whether the SEC’s interpretation of the Howey Test, a key basis employed to test whether an asset is to be deemed an invest contract, remains an infallible construct in their prosecution,” the analysts wrote. “Additionally, the decision perhaps opens the door for Coinbase (and other crypto defendants alike) to invoke the Major Questions Doctrine.”

The Major Questions Doctrine, which prohibits agencies from determining questions of “vast economic and political significance” without explicit authorization from Congress, was brought up by Coinbase last year in a motion to have several charges brought by the SEC dropped.

Coinbase argued that Congress had not granted the SEC authority to regulate crypto under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1933. Ultimately, a federal judge in Manhattan found that the SEC had exercised “its congressionally bestowed enforcement authority to regulate ‘virtually any instrument that might be sold as an investment.’”

Still, Citi Research analysts cited two ongoing lawsuits against the SEC that could establish limits to the agency’s regulatory jurisdiction for crypto. They wrote that the cases offer “a challenge to the core of the SEC’s regulation by enforcement strategy.”

“It’s unclear if [the Major Questions Doctrine] would be ultimately successful for Coinbase and other crypto defendants in their respective cases,” the analysts continued. “Yet we believe this element potentially affords greater defense strategy flexibility, as well as improved standing to argue their cases/appeals to higher courts.”

Edited by Ryan Ozawa.

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