Mystery Prediction Market Whale Made $47 Million Betting on Trump

By André Beganski

As Donald Trump prevailed at the ballot box Tuesday, so did several Polymarket users, who backed the former President’s White House bid to the tune of millions of dollars.

Representing the blockchain-based prediction platform’s largest market by volume and open interest, Polymarket’s U.S. presidential election contest concluded Wednesday. Overall, the contest registered $3.6 billion in total trading volume before it resolved in Trump’s favor.

With Trump projected to win the country’s popular vote alongside enough electoral votes to retake the White House, a number of Polymarket users were elevated to the top of its leaderboard. That included an account named Theo4, walking away with a $21 million profit as the platform’s most profitable trader after wagering $19.2 million.

However, the individual’s winnings aren’t limited to only that account. Polymarket confirmed to CNBC last month that a French trader controlled four accounts going all-in on the former president’s re-election bid: Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie.

When combined, the accounts have made $47 million in profit on $45 million in bets—nearly all tied to Trump reclaiming the White House. Meanwhile, a Polymarket account named zxgngl notched an $11 million profit on what was originally an $18 million Trump position.

While Vice President Kamala Harris’ election odds surpassed Trump’s in August and September, Polymarket’s flagship contest leaned toward the Republican candidate in the final month of the 2024 race. As her election odds careened to a less than 1% chance Wednesday, some Polymarket users saw hefty losses crystalize alongside Trump’s win.

An account named leier, listed on Polymarket as the largest holder of shares predicting a Harris victory, was nursing $5 million in losses. As of this writing, the account still held a position backing Harris on Polymarket that had collapsed 99.9% in value to $4,200 from $3.9 million.

Allowing users to sell their positions before a market resolves, many users abandoned their bets in the twilight of Harris’ campaign to reclaim what they could. For example, leier sold thousands of shares across more than 100 transactions for less than a few thousand dollars.

Another account named StarVoting had racked up $3.7 million in losses across multiple markets backing the vice president. That included a position on Harris winning the popular vote that had fallen by $694,000 in value and a White House win that had plummeted by $2.8 million in value.

Overall, Polymarket users holding positions that foresaw a Harris win totaled $100 million on Election Day, according to a Dune dashboard. But as America is projected to send Trump to the White House for a second time, those positions have been rendered virtually worthless.

Edited by Andrew Hayward

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