4 min read
After weeks of Bitcoin turning heads and climbing the charts, the top of the crypto market is now barely moving. Bitcoin trades at $86,264.06, up 0.59% over 24 hours. Ethereum sits at $2,714.39, up just 0.34%.
The whole market is worth just north of $3 trillion, essentially flat for the day, according to CoinGecko data. The rest of the 12 largest coins are drifting in roughly the same way. Solana gained 1.4% and XRP 1.07%, while BNB lost 0.41% and Tron 0.22%.
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Most traditional coins are flat, and then there’s privacy coins.
Zcash, perhaps the best known privacy coin, has been on a tear over the last year, and today is up 3%, recovering from a pullback off its recent peak near $1,600. Monero, meanwhile, is up 2.14% at $562.32 over the last 24 hours, making the privacy coins the standout performers on the day.
The daily charts tell the two coins apart. Zcash is up 2.62% on Binance since the day's candle opened, so its move is still running. Monero is riding a spike that began yesterday and kept running during the last 24 hours..
The overall flat tape for the crypto market has a reason. The Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, its first hike since July 2023. Then the September jobs report landed with just 29,000 new jobs against the 84,000 economists expected, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
That weak print cut the odds of an October hike to about 22% right after the report, according to CME FedWatch. The likelihood that interest rates do not increase again is a good sign for risk assets, so the September rate hike combined with odds of another hike sinking is essentially a wash—hence, a flat market.
Bitcoin, though, continues to show bullish momentum. Yesterday, it flashed a second golden cross, with its 100-day exponential moving average crossing above the 200-day. It is still sitting below resistance at $87,354. But even the most sustained bull runs need time to breathe.
Now, here’s the caveat on Zcash. A green day is not a trend reversal. ZEC still sits about 19% below its late-September high of $1,698, and one day of buying does not close that gap.
Zcash slid to $1,333.50 intraday on October first as Grayscale's Zcash ETF lost $30.25 million. Even after that outflow, the fund has taken in about $268 million in net inflows since it launched on Aug. 25.
Zoom out, and Zcash is its own story. The coin has gained about 2,500% over the previous 12 months, and it still not showing signs of a serious trend reversal.
The latest leg was a 253% climb from a $480.72 base to the $1,698 high in late September. It came with two big events: Grayscale's Zcash ETF launched on Aug. 25, and coinholders voted 98.9% on Sept. 17 to keep Bitcoin-style halvings (and keep the coin's inflation in check).
A cooldown is not out of character for this coin. ZEC dropped 38% when the Ironwood counterfeiting scare hit earlier this year, then recovered past $1,600. Against that, the current slide of about 19% from the September high is mild.
Monero is in a similar spot. XMR trades about 11% below its September high of $632.86. Its market cap is $10.57 billion, less than half of Zcash's $23.18 billion.
Based on the daily charts, both privacy coins are in consolidation, not breakout. On Zcash's daily chart, price is at $1,372.69, stuck just under the resistance zone at $1,403.89, measured from the $451.75 low to the $1,698 high. Today's high of $1,385 did not reach it. The 38.2% level at $1,221.93 sits below as the next marker.
A faster gauge disagrees on Monero, which is deep in overbought territory, but is showing a more constrained movement, trading sideways since late September.
Here are the levels to watch in the near term: Bitcoin needs to clear $87,354, Zcash faces $1,403.89 overhead, and Monero needs to keep holding above $558.69.
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