Morning Minute: Clarity Act Odds Soar as Trump Agrees to Ethics Provisions

By Tyler Warner

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. And check out our daily news show 'FOMO HOUR' covering all of the top stories and market action.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors rebound as Clarity Act odds jump; BTC at $77.7k
• Clarity Act odds jump to 31% after Trump agrees to ethics provisions
• ETH ETFs see $216M in inflows on Friday while BTC ETFs had outflows
• Pump introduced Holder Rewards as new mechanism to encourage hodling
• Stonkfun and Robinhood Chain ecos cool as volumes fall

🏛️ The Clarity Act Odds Steam Ahead of Tuesday Vote

Chuck Schumer called Senate Democrats together Sunday evening to talk about the Clarity Act, two days before the vote that decides whether crypto market structure legislation happens this year. It follows Trump meeting advisors Friday on the bill’s ethics provisions, the issue that has blocked it since July. The odds of the bill passing jumped to 31% overnight on the progress, more than doubling off the bottom.

Myriad: Will Congress pass the Clarity Act? Click to make your prediction.

It appears that President Trump has agreed to updated ethics provisions that would restrict what he and his family would be able to do in crypto, along with other elected officials. This was the primary sticking point for many Democrats.

Looking ahead, Tuesday at 2:15 p.m. ET the Senate votes on cloture. Sixty votes sends the bill to floor debate. Anything less kills comprehensive crypto legislation for 2026, with the next realistic window in 2029. Republicans hold 53 seats and at least two are expected to vote no, so supporters likely need nine Democrats. As of Friday not one had publicly committed, and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) had just said the revised text still falls short.

The rewrite landed Thursday with six hundred and thirty pages, more than 114 provisions added at Democratic request. The substantive change puts “decentralized-in-name-only” protocols under CFTC registration and Bank Secrecy Act rules. The ethics language went untouched, which is precisely the problem.

Even if it doesn’t pass, progress will be made. CFTC Chain Mike Selig has already told his staff to explore rules under existing authority if Congress doesn’t act. The SEC proposed letting blockchains serve as official stock ownership records. The CFTC moved to dismiss CME’s suit over perps. Coinbase filed to bring single-stock perps onshore. All of it in two weeks, without a statute.

But what happens if it does pass? Well, that scenario doesn’t seem priced in at all. ETH would be a big winner. Revenue generating protocols like Hyperliquid and Lighter would likely be big winners as well. It’s very likely that we would see a big rally across the crypto board. Turns out, we have a very big week ahead.

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are green up 1-3% as Clarity Act odds jump; BTC +1% at $77.8k; ETH +1% at $2,510; SOL +2% at $101; HYPE +4% at $80; ZEC +3% at $1,130
• Top alt movers include FIL (+22%), Pendle (+9%) and LIT (+9%)
• Oil +3% at $103; Gold -2% at $4,333
• Stock futures are red on calls for AI slowdown; DOW -0.2%, Nasdaq -1.5%
• Dario Amodei called for slowing frontier AI development, with Sam Altman and Elon Musk both publicly agreeing, citing AI systems that increasingly help build their own successors
• A fake government request slipped through Revolut’s checks, exposing passports, verification selfies, home addresses, and full Bitcoin transaction histories for an undisclosed number of customers, with no funds lost
• India launched “Demat 2.0” to issue corporate bonds as digital tokens on a permissioned ledger settled with the wholesale digital rupee, with REC, Larsen & Toubro, and IIFL Finance already raising about $107 million against a $620 billion market

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $13M in net outflows on Friday; the ETH ETFs saw $216M in inflows in a striking difference

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme leaders were slighly green; DOGE +1%, SHIB +1%, PEPE +1%, PENGU -1%, TRUMP +1%, SPX +5%
• Robinhood chain leaders were mostly red as chain volume falls; Pons +4% to $390M; AI -1% at $245M; Cashcat -5% at $150M; Pare (+40%), Strategy (+60%) and Raxol (+110%) led top movers
• Solana top movers were led by Cate +40%, Perpspad (+46%) and Biketyson (+290%)

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• Pump led onchain protocols in revenue over the past 7 days with $10.2M, following by Hyperliquid ($9.9M), Aerodrome ($9.2M), Pons ($8M) and Stonkfun ($7.4M)
• Stonkfun had a blowoff revenue day on Friday with $2.2M, though revenue did fall to $1.05M and $900k in the 2 weekend days following
• Pump introduced Holder Rewards, where creators can select a percent of fee share that will go back to holders of their token

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were mostly flat; Punks even at 29.8 ETH, BAYC -1% at 6.65 ETH, Pudgy -3% at 3.46 ETH
• Argonauts (+20%) and Cat Street Broker (+120%) led top movers
• Argonauts had a 14.5 ETH sale overnight as the floor ran to 0.86 ETH

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