Bitcoin Price Bounces, But Bears Are Still in Control: Analysis

By Jose Antonio Lanz

Traditional markets are acting spooked as geopolitical tensions rise. The VIX—Wall Street's "fear gauge" measuring expected volatility in the S&P 500—surged above 35, its highest level in nearly a year, as oil prices briefly spiked toward $120 per barrel following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Stocks fell. Gold fell. Pretty much everything that was supposed to be a safe haven wasn't.

Bitcoin, true to form, decided to go a different direction. Almost every coin in the top 10 by market capitalization opened in the green today—Tron being the lone holdout. Bitcoin is currently trading above $69,000, up nearly 4.3% today, which would sound great for holders if the longer term charts didn't have some awkward things to say about it.

On Myriad, a prediction market run by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are essentially split between Bitcoin pumping to $84K or dumping to $55K, with odds slightly bearish. Traders are currently pricing in odds at 57% on the downside; not exactly a ringing endorsement of this bounce.

The broader macro question of which bubble bursts first, crypto or equities, is very much alive, especially with the VIX spiking and oil markets in chaos. Bitcoin's own volatility index, the BVIV, already peaked above 96 in early February when BTC touched $60,000, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has been in the fear zone for most of 2026 so far.

What happens in traditional markets this week will matter, especially considering Bitcoin is trading in a compression zone. If equities continue selling off and the VIX keeps climbing, risk assets face real pressure regardless of any intraday bounce. Traders will want to watch equity futures—they'll act as a ceiling or floor for how far this move actually goes.

Bitcoin (BTC) price: The breakout that wasn't

Bitcoin opened today's session at $65,974 and is currently trading at $69,128—a 4.78% jump with an intraday high of $69,497. On the surface, that reads like bullish news, but looking at the broader picture makes this assumption more complicated.

Bitcoin (BTC) price data. Image: Tradingview

Last week, Bitcoin printed what looked like a clean breakout above the descending triangle that's been compressing its price since February. But the week closed with the price of Bitcoin back inside the triangle. What appeared to be a breakout was mostly a wick in the weekly charts—technically closer to an inverted doji (a candlestick with no body and big wicks), a signal that sellers absorbed all the buying pressure and rejected the move hard. The triangle swallowed the breakout whole. Today traders are trying again.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 33.7. ADX measures trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, with readings above 25 confirming a genuine trend is in play—and 33.7 puts Bitcoin squarely in "strong trend" territory. But the ADX during this bear run has been stronger and is receding. That's not a confirmation that bulls have taken over, but it can be interpreted as a sign that the tug-of-war is tightening even though things don’t look good for long-term bulls at the moment.

Until Bitcoin actually escapes the triangle and holds above it, the ADX shift is a yellow light, not a green one.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, reads 49.3. RSI is a momentum oscillator running from 0 to 100—below 30 signals oversold conditions, above 70 signals overbought, and 50 is the neutral midpoint. At 49.3, Bitcoin is flat on the fence. It hasn't exhausted buyers, but hasn't attracted enough conviction to push into bullish momentum territory either. Traders typically want to see RSI clear and hold above 50 before calling a meaningful momentum shift. Right now it's just parked there, noncommittal.

The Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, tell the clearest story. The 50-day EMA—which tracks average prices over the last 50 sessions to reflect medium-term momentum—is sitting below the 200-day EMA. That's a major bearish setup considering the gap is getting wider. EMAs show trend direction by weighting recent prices more heavily, and when the short-term average is below the long-term one, it means recent price action is weaker than the broader trend.

For bears to genuinely lose their grip, Bitcoin needs more than a session spike to $69K. What bulls actually need is a series of daily closes above the descending trendline—currently running near $73,000–$75,000, close to where the 50-day EMA sits at $73,293. Bullish traders would want to see rising ADX confirming that the move has real trend strength behind it, not just a VIX-driven risk-on blip. Anything short of that, and this remains a probe of resistance inside a compression zone.

Today's 4.78% pop gives intraday traders something to work with, but swing traders and holders are still inside a bearish structure until Bitcoin posts convincing closes above $73,000–$75,000 on volume. Lose the $65,000–$66,000 volume shelf below—the price level where most of the recent trading has concentrated—and the path toward $60,000 opens up fast.

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