The Bitcoin bull run to come with the upcoming halving is likely to be the last one that cab be clearly predicted, said crypto mining pool BTC.Top’s founder Jiang Zhuoer. The mining pool is the second largest in China.
The Bitcoin tycoon recently took to Weibo (Twitter's equivalent in China) to opine about his prediction of Bitcoin’s next halving. As the date of the third bitcoin halving draws near, debates regarding when the halving effects kick in and how it will influence price have been intensifying.
What is the halving
Since Bitcoin’s creation in 2009, its block reward is designed to be halved every 4 years. There have been two halvings, with the first happening on November 28, 2012, and the second on July 9, 2016. The next halving event is estimated to fall on May 12 this year, when mining rewards will get cut in half, to 6.25 BTC per block.
In terms of Bitcoin price performance, the two previous halvings have projected bullish momentum a year before and after the event. Bitcoin bulls strongly believe that bitcoin would also see great gains in price this time, while some others say that history may not predict the future.
Jiang sees a tipping point
In Jiang’s view, Bitcoin halving this time will definitely bring in a bull market and it is likely to be the last bull run that can be clearly foreseen on the grounds that:
1."DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND OF BITCOIN WILL SEE A SHARP DECREASE AS PEOPLE WHO SHOULD KNOW ABOUT BITCOIN WILL HAVE ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT IT AFTER THE HALVING;
2.THE SUPPLY OF ADDITIONAL BITCOIN ENTERING THE MARKET WILL BE DECREASED BY 50% AFTER THE HALVING;
3.BITCOIN’S MARKET SHARE CONTINUES TO DECLINE, AND THE CRYPTO MARKET WILL BECOME SIMILAR TO ASSETS LIKE REAL ESTATE AND US STOCKS."
Some have argued that when there are legal and convenient channels for regular people, Bitcoin will have a huge potential investor base. But there's still a long way for Bitcoin to go to get close to the acceptance of traditional assets such as stocks. So it's hard to predict what will happen.
[This story was originally published in 8BTC.com, and is shared by arrangement with that site. It has been edited to conform with Decrypt's style.]