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Coin Prices


When will BTC reach a new All-Time High?

Bitcoin ATH before December 31 2026?

96% No· resolves Jan 1, 2027· $100.9 volume

Chance of yes

  • Before 20275%
  • Before October1%

Trade this market on Myriad

Why this matters

Bhutan's 10,000 BTC Reserve Enters Active Yield Strategy, a Quiet Bullish Signal

Sovereign-backed BTC yield deployment by a state-linked entity reinforces long-term institutional demand, a structural input to timing a new Bitcoin all-time high.

  • Bhutan deploys 10,000 BTC into institutional yield management via 3iQ

    Gelephu Mindfulness City selected Toronto-based 3iQ Corp. to generate returns on up to 10,000 BTC — worth roughly $1B at the time of pledge — through a market-neutral approach. Active deployment for yield removes this supply from passive holding, tightening available float.

  • Market-neutral mandate signals BTC used as productive capital, not just reserve

    GMC's stated strategy covers basis trades and lending, approaches that typically yield at least 5% annually. Treating BTC as a yield-generating asset rather than a static store normalizes institutional capital deployment and adds a demand signal from a sovereign-backed entity.

  • Mandate transparency gap leaves actual BTC size in question

    GMC declined to disclose the mandate size to CoinDesk, and neither party confirmed the bitcoin's origin amid earlier onchain data showing roughly $1B leaving Druk Holdings wallets. Uncertainty over the reserve's integrity is the key risk to this otherwise bullish read.

Peirce's CLARITY Act Optimism Offers Thin Comfort Against Legislative Headwinds

Regulatory clarity from the CLARITY Act is a structural bullish catalyst for BTC's path to a new all-time high; Peirce's optimism is a mild tailwind for the timeline question.

  • Peirce backs CLARITY Act but SEC vows progress regardless of outcome

    SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce publicly expressed optimism about Congress passing the CLARITY Act, while simultaneously stating the SEC will advance crypto regulatory efforts even if the bill fails. The dual-track commitment limits the market-moving force of her optimism.

  • SEC's backup-plan stance softens the regulatory clarity upside for BTC

    Peirce's own words — 'even if the bill does not pass, much can still be accomplished' — signal the SEC is not treating CLARITY as a binary catalyst. For BTC, that means the upside from a legislative breakthrough is partially pre-priced by agency-level action already underway.

CLARITY Act Stall Deepens as Recess Looms, Regulatory Hope Fades

A failed CLARITY Act reduces the near-term regulatory catalyst most cited as a path to renewed institutional inflows, pushing Bitcoin's all-time high timeline further out.

  • Passage odds collapse from 82% to 30% as Democratic votes stay out of reach

    Polymarket odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year fell from 82% in February 2026 to roughly 30% by August. Republicans hold only 53 Senate seats and need 60 votes; seven Democrats remain opposed over ethics provisions, with no cloture motion filed as of Monday.

  • Ethics sunset clause giving Trump immunity hardens Democratic opposition

    The revised CLARITY Act text sunsets its ethics provision at noon on January 20, 2029 — the last day of Trump's term — and bars DOJ from prosecuting violations even after. Enforcement is DOJ-only, with state AGs explicitly blocked, giving Democrats a concrete political argument against the bill.

  • Post-recess calendar leaves barely five session weeks before Election Day

    Congress leaves Washington by Aug. 10 and returns Sept. 14. An attorney with former SEC experience told reporters the bill may be 'dead in the water' given midterm focus, while Bernstein warned clients digital assets would likely fall further if CLARITY dies this year.

ARK Invest's $9.4M crypto buy signals institutional confidence in BTC ecosystem

ARK's deliberate accumulation of crypto-equity exposure during volatility reflects institutional conviction that aligns with the broader question of when BTC will reach a new all-time high.

  • ARK buys $8M in Coinbase stock, largest single crypto equity bet

    ARK Invest purchased $8 million in Coinbase Global (COIN) shares across ARKK and ARKW ETFs, its largest crypto-equity allocation in this tranche. Coinbase is Bitcoin's primary on-ramp for retail and institutional investors, so ARK's vote of confidence signals conviction in sustained crypto market activity.

  • ARK adds Circle to portfolio with $1.4M stake, a first-time position

    ARK initiated a $1.4M position in Circle Internet Group, the issuer of USDC — one of the world's largest stablecoins. Circle only recently went public, and ARK's entry underscores growing institutional appetite for regulated crypto infrastructure, a structural support for broader digital asset markets including BTC.

  • $10B AUM fund rebalancing into crypto equities amid market volatility

    ARK Invest, with over $10 billion in assets under management, executed these buys as a deliberate rebalance during price volatility rather than a passive drift. Active accumulation by a high-profile macro-tech fund reinforces the narrative that crypto-linked equities remain compelling at current levels.

Live probabilities from Myriad. Odds are not certainty.