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Coinbase today launched a tool for predicting market moves, using data aggregated from its own platform. It will show a number of key indicators based on the activity of large traders—known as whales—the average hold time for a given asset, and the performance of “correlated” crypto-assets.
The free service will be available starting today on Coinbase.com, according to a blog post. Though Coinbase acknowledges that it is impossible to predict “what crypto prices will do,” the goal of Trading Signals is apparently “to provide accurate, objective measurements of cryptocurrency usage based on the aggregated and anonymized activity of millions of Coinbase customers.”
Sentiment analysis is a popular tool in cryptocurrency markets. Platforms like Synthesio trawl Twitter for bullish or bearish sentiment, while prediction markets like Augur and Gnosis make it possible for traders to bet on future prices, which often yields more accurate results than analyses made by individuals. Meanwhile, “prints” of the dollar-denominated stablecoin USDT—which accounts for much of the Bitcoin market’s dollar value—often reliably forecast price swings.
Coinbase will offer three distinct types of “trading signal.” The first, “top holder activity,” tracks the movements of Coinbase’s wealthiest ten percent over the past 24 hours. Getting a sense of where the big bucks are flowing could, feasibly, help traders gauge imminent market trends. (Or not, as Coinbase acknowledges.)
The second type of signal is a coin’s “popularity,” which is determined by how long a crypto token has been held by Coinbase customers on average. Again, there’s a caveat: “Keep in mind that Coinbase has a wide diversity of customers, with a variety of factors driving their asset hold times and which assets they find interesting,” writes Coinbase.
Last is “price correlation,” which informs traders of the movements of coins with similar trajectories. Unsure where Bitcoin will head next but you know that Ethereum, which is going up, is heavily correlated to it? Buy now, fella!
As we’ve noted before, price prediction in crypto has roughly the same accuracy rate as 2016 presidential race polling. As in, not very accurate!